Spatio-temporal patterns of phenological development in Germany in relation to temperature and day length
Spatio-temporal patterns of phenological development in Germany in relation to temperature and day length
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DOI：
10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.08.007
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发表时间：
2012-01
影响因子：
6.2
通讯作者：
S. Siebert;F. Ewert
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Siebert;F. Ewert
作物物候发育已在田间实验中得到广泛研究，但在较大范围内的研究较少，而大范围内的数据可用性往往有限。作物发育的时空变化在多大程度上可以通过实地研究得出的关系来解释，例如许多作物模型中使用的温度总和概念，尚不清楚，但这个问题可能需要这些模型的大规模应用。本研究的目的是分析作物物候发育的时空模式对温度和日长的响应。我们使用了关于燕麦 (Avena sativa L.) 物候的综合数据集（6019 个观测点的 656,234 个物候观测）以及德国 1959-2009 年期间的相关气候数据。我们的结果表明，自 1959 年以来统计上显着的变暖趋势导致所有物候阶段提前开始，并且大多数物候阶段缩短，黄熟提前 17 天，“播种至黄熟”阶段缩短 14 天。物候发展也存在明显的空间格局，不同生态区的差异在于15-26天的发展阶段的发生以及6和21天阶段之间的阶段长度。大多数时空变化可以通过温度和日照长度的影响来解释。然而，温度总和（热时间）和日长校正温度总和（光热时间）在时间和空间上也有所不同，这表明随着时间的推移和跨生态区域使用不同的品种。温度总和和光热时间的这种变化很大一部分可以用发育期间的平均温度来解释。这可以提供一种利用不同成熟度类型的品种来模拟农民对气候变化的适应的方法；但还需要进一步调查。本研究中计算的燕麦的热和光热需求与田间实验已知的关系良好吻合，支持使用温度总和概念进行大规模应用，以模拟作物物候对温度和日长的响应。该分析应扩展到其他作物和地区，以进一步评估观察到的作物物候的时空模式以及解释这些模式的关系。
Phenological development of crops has been extensively studied in field experiments but less so at larger scales for which data availability is often limited. To what extent the spatio-temporal variability of crop development can be explained by relationships derived from field studies such as the temperature sum concept used in many crop models is unclear but the question could entail the large scale application of these models. The aim of this study was to analyze the spatio-temporal patterns of crop phenological development in response to temperature and day length. We used a comprehensive dataset (656,234 phenological observations at 6019 observation sites) about the phenology of oat (Avena sativa L.) and related climate data from Germany for the period 1959–2009. Our results show that the statistically significant warming trend since 1959 resulted in an earlier onset of all phenological stages and a shortening of most phenological phases with a 17-day earlier onset of yellow ripeness and a shortening of the “sowing to yellow ripeness” phase by 14 days. There was also a distinct spatial pattern in phenological development, with differences among eco-regions in the occurrence of development stages of 15–26 days and the length of the phases between stages of 6 and 21 days. Most of this spatio-temporal variability could be explained through the effects of temperature and day length. However, temperature sums (thermal times) and day length corrected temperature sums (photo-thermal times) also varied in time and space, pointing to the use of different varieties over time and across eco-regions. A considerable part of this variability in temperature sums and photo-thermal times could be explained by the mean temperature during the development periods. This may provide a means of modelling farmers’ adaptation to climate change using varieties of different maturity types; but it requires further investigation. The good agreement of the thermal and photo-thermal requirements of oat computed in this study with relationships known from field experiments supports the use of the temperature sum concept for large scale application to simulate crop phenology in response to temperature and day length. The analysis should be extended to other crops and regions to further evaluate the observed spatio-temporal patterns in crop phenology and the relationships explaining these patterns.