Ischemic Heart Disease Worldwide, 1990 to 2013: Estimates From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
Ischemic Heart Disease Worldwide, 1990 to 2013: Estimates From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
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DOI：
10.1161/circoutcomes.115.002007
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发表时间：
2015-07
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Roth G
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Shepard D;VanderZanden A;Moran A;Naghavi M;Murray C;Roth G
方法《2013年全球疾病负担研究》为188个国家和地区的240个死因提供了1990至2013年间按年龄和性别划分的一致死亡指标。已报道了详细的方法和结果。1简要地说，收集了关于死亡率的所有现有数据，包括生命登记和口头尸检数据。使用统计方法或专家意见对报告为潜在死亡原因的非特定情况进行了重新分配。死亡编码的不同版本被映射到一个统一的系统。使用死亡数据和国家水平的协变量，使用集合建模来估计特定原因的死亡率。对每个原因特定模型进行样本外有效性检验，并从集合模型的后验分布中提取1000个样本来估计不确定度，以点估计值作为中间值。对特定死因死亡率进行了调整，以符合全球全因死亡率的范围。在这种可视化中，我们将国家一级的估计限制在那些提供重要登记或口头尸检数据的国家。该图形是使用Adobe Illustrator创建的。
MethodThe Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 produced consistent measures of death by age and sex for 188 countries for the years 1990 to 2013 for 240 causes of death. Detailed methods and results have been reported. 1 Briefly, all available data on mortality were collected, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy. Nonspecific conditions reported as underlying causes of death were redistributed using statistical methods or expert opinion. Versions of death coding were mapped to a uniform system. Ensemble modeling was used to estimate cause-specific mortality using death data and country-level covariates. Out-of-sample validity testing was performed for each cause-specific model, and uncertainty was estimated by taking 1000 draws from the posterior distribution of the ensemble model, with point estimates taken as the median value. Cause-specific death was adjusted to fit the envelope of global all-cause mortality. In this visualization, we restricted country-level estimates to those countries which produce vital registration or verbal autopsy data. The Figure is created with Adobe Illustrator.