Real-time estimation of the reproduction number of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in China in 2020 based on incidence data
Real-time estimation of the reproduction number of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in China in 2020 based on incidence data
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根据发病数据实时估算2020年中国新型冠状病毒病（COVID-19）的传染数
DOI：
10.21037/atm-20-1944
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发表时间：
2020-06-01
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
He, Daihai
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Wang, Kai;Zhao, Shi;He, Daihai
自2019年12月在中国武汉首次出现以来，新型冠状病毒病（COVID-19）已对中国多个地方和海外的公共卫生构成严重威胁。实时量化传染性对于制定公共卫生应对措施至关重要。方法利用COVID-19疫情序列间隔（SI）确定的可更新方程估计中国、湖北省和武汉市随时间变化的再生产数量。我们比较不同时间段的平均繁殖数量，以探讨针对COVID-19疫情的公共卫生控制措施的有效性。结果中国、湖北省和武汉市的再生育数分别为2.61（95%CI：2.47-2.75）、2.76（95%CI：2.54-2.95）和2.71（95%CI：2.43-3.01）。我们发现，城市封锁后，繁殖数量大幅下降。截至2月16日，这三个再生数分别进一步降至0.98、1.14和1.41。结论COVID-19疫情的控制有效地大幅降低了疾病传播率，截至2月16日，中国的生殖数量降至0.98。同时，武汉市的繁殖数可能仍大于1，建议继续加强公共卫生控制。
Background Since the first appearance in Wuhan, China in December 2019, the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has posed serious threats to the public health in many Chinese places and overseas. It is essential to quantify the transmissibility on real-time basis for designing public health responses. Methods We estimated the time-varying reproduction numbers in China, Hubei province and Wuhan city by using the renewable equation determined by the serial interval (SI) of COVID-19. We compare the average reproduction numbers in different periods of time to explore the effectiveness of the public health control measures against the COVID-19 epidemic. Results We estimated the reproduction numbers at 2.61 (95% CI: 2.47–2.75), 2.76 (95% CI: 2.54–2.95) and 2.71 (95% CI: 2.43–3.01) for China, Hubei province and Wuhan respectively. We found that the reproduction number largely dropped after the city lockdown. As of February 16, the three reproduction numbers further reduced to 0.98, 1.14 and 1.41 respectively. Conclusions The control of COVID-19 epidemic was effective in substantially reducing the disease transmissibility in terms of the reproduction number in China reduced to 0.98 as of February 16. At the same time, the reproduction number in Wuhan was probably still larger than 1, and thus the enhancement in the public health control was recommended to maintain.