When tension is just a fluctuation How noisy data affect model comparison
When tension is just a fluctuation How noisy data affect model comparison
复制标题
当张力只是波动时，噪声数据如何影响模型比较
DOI：
10.1051/0004-6361/202039560
复制
发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
6.5
通讯作者：
Joachimi B
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Joachimi B
可能性的汇总统计，如贝叶斯证据，提供了一种比较模型和评估物理实验结果之间或内部的张力的原则性方法。数据的噪声实现在这些模型比较统计中引起分散。对于一个现实的情况下，从大尺度结构的宇宙学推断，我们表明，贝叶斯因子的对数达到分散的顺序统一，增加显着的比较模型之间的更强的张力。我们开发了一个近似的程序，量化的抽样分布的证据在一个小的额外的计算成本，并将其应用到真实的数据，以证明分散的影响，这有助于减少任何模型差异的意义。数据压缩被强调为一个潜在的途径，以抑制噪音的证据，可以忽略不计的水平，证明了概念usingPlanckcosmic微波背景数据。
Summary statistics of likelihood, such as Bayesian evidence, offer a principled way of comparing models and assessing tension between, or within, the results of physical experiments. Noisy realisations of the data induce scatter in these model comparison statistics. For a realistic case of cosmological inference from large-scale structure, we show that the logarithm of the Bayes factor attains scatter of order unity, increasing significantly with stronger tension between the models under comparison. We develop an approximate procedure that quantifies the sampling distribution of the evidence at a small additional computational cost and apply it to real data to demonstrate the impact of the scatter, which acts to reduce the significance of any model discrepancies. Data compression is highlighted as a potential avenue to suppressing noise in the evidence to negligible levels, with a proof of concept demonstrated usingPlanckcosmic microwave background data.