Temporally explicit abiotic depletion potential (TADP) for mineral resource use based on future demand projections
Temporally explicit abiotic depletion potential (TADP) for mineral resource use based on future demand projections
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基于未来需求预测的矿产资源利用的暂时明确的非生物消耗潜力 (TADP)
DOI：
10.1007/s11367-022-02077-2
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Motoshita Masaharu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Yokoi Ryosuke;Watari Takuma;Motoshita Masaharu
目的矿产资源生命周期影响评价（LCIA）中矿产资源利用的潜在影响（表征）的评价一直是争论不休的问题。矿产资源使用特征模型中最关键的挑战之一是考虑未来在用库存的需求和供应的变化，这与全球人口和经济增长以及不断增加的低碳技术有关。我们提出了一个扩展的表征模型，以评估潜在的影响，为任意的时间范围内，考虑未来的需求变化和可用的在用股票：时间明确的非生物耗竭潜力（TADP）。MethodsThe TADP开发的基础上非生物耗竭潜力（ADP），这是一个广泛使用的表征模型，矿产资源的使用。ADP根据自然储量估计和当前开采率评估矿产资源使用的潜在影响，而TADP采用任意时间范围的平均开采率。平均提取率估计使用物质流分析，考虑到未来的需求变化和循环下的五个共享的社会经济途径（SSP）。TADPs计算为六种常见的金属：铝，铜，铁，铅，镍，和zinc.Results and discussionAs的计算TADPs的长期到2050年（TADP2050）的结果，相比于铁，所有其他金属表现出更大的值的特征因子的所有SSP比原来的ADP。铜的TADP2050在六种金属中表现出与ADP的最大差异（约1.9倍），这主要归因于未来需求的增长。另一方面，从更长的时间角度来看，铅和锌的TADP 2100与ADP的差异比铜大（锌约为2.8倍），这主要是由于铅的寿命相对较短，锌的回收率较低。这表明，金属的表征因素的相对重要性取决于时间perspectives.ConclusionsWith拟议的表征模型，矿产资源利用的潜在影响可以评估，反映未来的情况，为选定的时间范围。结果表明，考虑到未来的情况下，极大地影响了使用不同的矿产资源的潜在影响的相对重要性，在LCIA的研究结果。通过扩大矿产资源的覆盖范围和对其他相关因素的未来情景分析，TADP模型可以提高评估的稳健性，并进一步支持可持续资源管理的决策。
PurposeAssessing the potential impacts (characterization) of mineral resource use in life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) has long been debated. One of the most crucial challenges in the characterization models for mineral resource use is the consideration of the changing demand and availability of in-use stocks in the future, which is relevant to the global population and economy growth as well as the increasing low-carbon technologies. We propose an extended characterization model to assess the potential impacts for arbitrary time horizons, considering future demand changes and the availability of in-use stock: temporally explicit abiotic depletion potential (TADP).MethodsThe TADP was developed based on abiotic depletion potential (ADP), which is a widely used characterization model for mineral resource use. While the ADP assesses the potential impacts of mineral resource use based on a natural stock estimate and the current extraction rate, the TADP adopts an average extraction rate for arbitrary time horizons. The average extraction rate was estimated using material flow analysis considering future demand changes and recycling under the five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). TADPs were calculated for six common metals: aluminum, copper, iron, lead, nickel, and zinc.Results and discussionAs a result of calculating TADPs for the term by 2050 (TADP2050), compared to iron, all other metals showed larger values of characterization factors for all SSPs than the original ADPs. The TADP2050of copper exhibited the largest difference with ADP among the six metals (approximately 1.9 times), which is mainly attributed to future demand growth. On the other hand, for the longer time perspective, the TADP2100of lead and zinc exhibited larger differences with ADP than copper (approximately 2.8 times for zinc), which is mainly due to a relatively shorter lifetime for lead and a lower recycling rate for zinc. This suggests that the relative significance of the characterization factors of metals varies depending on the temporal perspective.ConclusionsWith the proposed characterization model, the potential impacts of mineral resource use can be assessed reflecting future situations for the selected time horizons. The results demonstrate that the consideration of future situations greatly influences the relative significance of the potential impacts of using different mineral resources in the results of LCIA studies. By expanding the coverage of mineral resources and future scenario analysis to other relevant factors, the TADP model can improve the robustness of the assessment and further support decision-making towards sustainable resource management.