Modeling colony collapse disorder in honeybees as a contagion.
Modeling colony collapse disorder in honeybees as a contagion.
复制标题
将蜜蜂的蜂群崩溃紊乱建模为一种传染病。
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
C. Mitchell
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C. Kribs;C. Mitchell
蜜蜂授粉每年仅在美国农业中就占140亿美元以上。在过去的十年里，蜜蜂神秘地大量死亡，估计有1000万个蜂箱，有时多达90%的养蜂场。关于这种现象的原因，人们仍然没有达成共识，这种现象被称为蜂群崩溃失调症（CCD）。一些数学模型只关注感染动力学来研究CCD。我们创建了一个模型来解释健康的蜂巢动态和由于CCD导致的蜂巢灭绝，通过觅食者给蜂巢带来的传染性感染来模拟CCD。该系统的三个常微分方程解释了多个蜂巢人口的行为，包括阿利效应和殖民地崩溃。数值分析导致临界蜂巢大小为多种情况下，并强调了加速觅食招聘在清空蜂巢在殖民地崩溃的作用。
Honeybee pollination accounts annually for over $14 billion in United States agriculture alone. Within the past decade there has been a mysterious mass die-off of honeybees, an estimated 10 million beehives and sometimes as much as 90% of an apiary. There is still no consensus on what causes this phenomenon, called Colony Collapse Disorder, or CCD. Several mathematical models have studied CCD by only focusing on infection dynamics. We created a model to account for both healthy hive dynamics and hive extinction due to CCD, modeling CCD via a transmissible infection brought to the hive by foragers. The system of three ordinary differential equations accounts for multiple hive population behaviors including Allee effects and colony collapse. Numerical analysis leads to critical hive sizes for multiple scenarios and highlights the role of accelerated forager recruitment in emptying hives during colony collapse.