Seismic Hazard Maps of Japan and Computational Differences in Models and Parameters
Seismic Hazard Maps of Japan and Computational Differences in Models and Parameters
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日本地震灾害图及模型和参数的计算差异
DOI：
10.4157/grj1984b.72.135
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发表时间：
1999
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
T. Kumamoto
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Kumamoto
为了建立日本板内地震的地震危险性图，结合历史记录、古地震学数据和随时间变化的条件地震复发模型，绘制了两种等高线图：2001年至2050年期间峰值地面加速度(PGA)大于或等于0.2g的概率图和同期概率为10%的PGA图。结果图证明了条件地震危险性分析的有效性，尽管在估计滑移率、经过时间和地震发震断层系统的分段方面存在一些不确定性。为了制作这些地图，首先比较了过去400年的历史地震活动率和来自活动断层数据的合成地震频率，以检查断层分段和滑移率估计中的不确定性的影响。在此基础上，给出了基于时间相关模型和时间无关模型的危险图。结果表明，条件危险图与目前对活动断裂复发行为的认识具有较好的一致性。例如，(1)对于被认为在历史时期内破裂的断层，获得了较低的概率，以及(2)对于经过时间较长或滑移率较高的断层，计算出了较高的概率。此外，基于时变地震复发模型，某些发震活动断裂系统被指示为预防性断裂。
To construct a seismic hazard map for intraplate earthquakes in Japan, historical records, paleoseismology data and a time-dependent conditional earthquake recurrence model were combined to crtate two types of contour maps: a probability map of peak ground acceleration (PGA) of 0.2 g or higher between 2001 AD and 2050 AD, and a PGA map of 10% probability during the same period. The resulting maps demonstrate the effectiveness of conditional seismic hazard analysis, although there are several uncertainties in the estimation of the slip rate, the elapsed time, and the segmentation of seismogenic fault systems. To create these maps, the historical seismicity rate for the last 400 years, and synthetic earthquake frequency from active fault data are first compared to examine the effect of uncertainties in fault segmentation and slip rate estimation. Then hazard maps based on time-dependent and time-independent models are derived. The results suggest that the conditional hazard map shows better agreement with current understanding of the recurrence behavior of active faults. For example, (1) low probabilities are obtained for faults that are considered to have ruptured within the historical period, and (2) higher probabilities are calculated for faults with long elapsed times or high slip rates. In addition, some seismogenic active fault systems are indicated as precautious faults based on the time-dependent earthquake recurrence model.