A Three-Component Biomarker Panel for Prediction of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever
A Three-Component Biomarker Panel for Prediction of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever
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DOI：
10.4269/ajtmh.2012.11-0469
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发表时间：
2012-02-01
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Kochel, Tadeusz J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brasier, Allan R.;Ju, Hyunsu;Kochel, Tadeusz J.
登革热病毒感染是热带国家发病的主要原因。及早发现登革出血热(DHF)可能有助于确定将从强化治疗中受益的个人。采用Logistic回归对51例患者(38例DIP和13例DHF)的11个试验值进行预测建模。我们建立了一个稳健的模型，曲线下的面积为0.9615，保留了IL-10水平、血小板和淋巴细胞作为主要预测特征。建立了基于这些特征的分类和回归树，交叉验证的准确率为86%。使用随机森林分类器，IL-10水平和血小板计数也被确定为与DHF相关的最具信息量的特征。在聚合酶链式反应证实的急性登革热感染的情况下，我们建议完整的血细胞计数和IL-10的快速检测可以帮助对潜在的DHF病例进行分类，以便进行密切随访或临床干预，以改善临床结果。
Dengue virus infections are a major cause of morbidity in tropical countries. Early detection of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) may help identify individuals that would benefit from intensive therapy. Predictive modeling was performed using 11 laboratory values of 51 individuals (38 DIP and 13 DHF) obtained on initial presentation using logistic regression. We produced a robust model with an area under the curve of 0.9615 that retained IL-10 levels, platelets, and lymphocytes as the major predictive features. A classification and regression tree was developed on these features that were 86% accurate on cross-validation. The IL-.10 levels and platelet counts were also identified as the most informative features associated with DHF using a Random Forest classifier. In the presence of polymerase chain reaction-proven acute dengue infections, we suggest a complete blood count and rapid measurement of IL-10 can assist in the triage of potential DHF cases for close follow-up or clinical intervention improving clinical outcome.