Comparison and validation of three versions of a forest wind risk model
Comparison and validation of three versions of a forest wind risk model
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.01.016
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发表时间：
2015-06-01
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Pizzirani, Stefania
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hale, Sophie E.;Gardiner, Barry;Pizzirani, Stefania
预测天然林和人工林发生风灾的可能性，对于了解森林生态系统功能、风暴对环境的影响以及森林风险管理具有重要意义。我们对三个版本的混合机制风风险模型，forestgale和一个统计逻辑回归模型进行了彻底的验证，针对苏格兰高地针叶林在一次大风暴后观察到的损害。统计分析表明，风暴期间树木高度的增加和当地风速的增加是造成破坏程度增加的主要因素。所有模型都对受损和未受损的林分提供了可接受的区分，但在机械模型的准确性和模型偏差之间存在权衡。偏差最小的两种机制模型在森林尺度上给出了非常可比的总体结果，可以构成管理森林风害风险的决策支持系统的一部分。爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有
Predicting the probability of wind damage in both natural and managed forests is important for understanding forest ecosystem functioning, the environmental impact of storms and for forest risk management. We undertook a thorough validation of three versions of the hybrid-mechanistic wind risk model, ForestGALES, and a statistical logistic regression model, against observed damage in a Scottish upland conifer forest following a major storm. Statistical analysis demonstrated that increasing tree height and local wind speed during the storm were the main factors associated with increased damage levels. All models provided acceptable discrimination between damaged and undamaged forest stands but there were trade-offs between the accuracy of the mechanistic models and model bias. The two versions of the mechanistic model with the lowest bias gave very comparable overall results at the forest scale and could form part of a decision support system for managing forest wind damage risk. Crown Copyright (C) 2015 Published by Elsevier Ltd.