Predicting the Future in Child and Family Social Work: Theoretical, Ethical and Methodological Issues for a Proposed Research Programme
Predicting the Future in Child and Family Social Work: Theoretical, Ethical and Methodological Issues for a Proposed Research Programme
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预测儿童和家庭社会工作的未来：拟议研究项目的理论、伦理和方法论问题
DOI：
10.1080/13575279.2019.1685463
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
D. Forrester
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
D. Wilkins;D. Forrester
社会工作者不断地预测着未来。在英格兰和威尔士，他们有法律义务这样做，因为1989年的《儿童法》要求工人不仅要评估儿童是否遭受了重大伤害，而且要评估他们是否有可能这样做。同样，在北爱尔兰，《1995年儿童(北爱尔兰)令》要求社会工作者也这样做。在更普通的层面上，社会工作者不断预测父母是否会使用并受益于某项服务，是否会发生进一步的家庭暴力事件，甚至家庭是否会去(或不去)进行家访。然而，预测未来是困难的，而且完全准确地预测是不可能的。社会工作并不是唯一需要预测的领域。在好的判断项目中，专家的预测被发现，在相对较长的时间范围内，并不比机会更好。另一方面，一些预测者的表现不仅超过了Chance，也超过了训练有素、能够获得机密数据的情报分析师。显然，人类的判断往往非常容易出错，但在正确的条件下，可能会非常有帮助。有没有可能改进社会工作对未来的预测？本文讨论了社会工作中预测理论化的关键问题，包括风险、自由意志和自我决定的概念。然后转向实际问题，如预测和决策之间的关系，并考虑一些可能的研究方法和与之相关的问题。为了说明这种方法的潜力，我们描述了我们如何开始探索这种方法在社会工作者中的表面效度价值，以及我们如何在社会工作中衡量预测的准确性。
ABSTRACT Social workers are constantly predicting the future. In England and Wales there is a legal duty on them to do so, as the 1989 Children Act requires workers to assess not only whether children have suffered significant harm, but also whether they are likely to do so. Similarly, in Northern Ireland social workers are required by The Children (Northern Ireland) Order 1995 to do the same. On a more mundane level, social workers are constantly making predictions about whether a parent might use and benefit from a particular service, whether there will be a further incident of domestic violence or even whether a family will be in (or not) for a home visit. Yet predicting the future is hard and doing so with complete accuracy is impossible. Social work is not the only area where prediction is necessary. In the Good Judgment Project, forecasts made by experts were found, over relatively long timeframes, to be no better than chance. On the other hand, some forecasters were able to outperform not only chance but also highly trained intelligence analysts with access to classified data. Clearly, human judgment is often highly fallible but, in the right conditions, can be incredibly helpful. Might it be possible to improve social work forecasts about the future? This paper considers key issues in theorising prediction in social work, including conceptions of risk, free will and self-determination. It then turns to practical issues, such as the relationship between forecasting and decision-making, and considers some possible research methods and issues associated with them. To illustrate the potential of this approach we describe how we have started to explore the face-validity value of this approach with social workers and how we have measured the accuracy of forecasting in social work.
影响因子：
2.8
作者：
Cartwright N;Hardie J
通讯作者：
Hardie J