Optimal quarantine strategies for the COVID-19 pandemic in a population with a discrete age structure
Optimal quarantine strategies for the COVID-19 pandemic in a population with a discrete age structure
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DOI：
10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110166
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发表时间：
2020-11-01
影响因子：
7.8
通讯作者：
Machado, Larissa
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gondim, Joao A. M.;Machado, Larissa
这项工作的目标是研究巴西COVID-19疫情的最佳控制措施。研究了一类具有隔离区的年龄结构SEIRQ模型，其中控制变量为隔离区入口参数。然后，我们比较了不同的检疫长度和分布的总控制成本的最佳控制，通过评估他们各自的减少死亡相比，同期没有检疫。最好的策略是提供一个日历，说明何时放松每个年龄组的隔离措施。最后，我们分析了隔离开始的延迟如何通过改变初始条件来影响这个日历。(c)2020爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
The goal of this work is to study the optimal controls for the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil. We consider an age-structured SEIRQ model with quarantine compartment, where the controls are the quarantine entrance parameters. We then compare the optimal controls for different quarantine lengths and distributions of the total control cost by assessing their respective reductions in deaths in comparison to the same period without quarantine. The best strategy provides a calendar of when to relax the isolation measures for each age group. Finally, we analyse how a delay in the beginning of the quarantine affects this calendar by changing the initial conditions. (c) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.