Incorporating caudate species susceptibilities and climate change into models of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans risk in the United States of America
Incorporating caudate species susceptibilities and climate change into models of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans risk in the United States of America
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DOI：
10.1016/j.biocon.2023.110181
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发表时间：
2023-08
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Matthew Grisnik;M. Gray;J. Piovia‐Scott;E. Carter;W. Sutton
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Matthew Grisnik;M. Gray;J. Piovia‐Scott;E. Carter;W. Sutton
在世界范围内，两栖动物受到包括气候变化和病原体在内的多种因素的威胁。一种新出现的真菌病原菌--火蜥蜴巴氏杆菌(Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans，BSAL)已导致欧洲火蜥蜴种群的灭绝，这是美国火蜥蜴多样性热点地区的一个保护问题。虽然在美国还没有检测到BSAL，但以前的研究表明BSAL具有很高的侵袭潜力。由于物种对BSAL的易感性与温度有关，我们预计气候变化将影响BSAL风险，这一点尚未被探索。在这里，我们使用环境条件的预测变化、特定物种的易感性估计和评估引入风险的新方法来估计当前和未来的BSAL入侵风险。为了产生预测，我们使用了代表引入风险、物种易感性和气候适宜性的地理空间数据。在整个气候情景中，我们的模型预测了美国东南部和西北部发生大斑潜蝇的总体风险最大。大白菜气候适宜性在西北部最大，而敏感物种的数量最多在东南部。在未来的情景下，我们预测在最极端的气候模型下，Bsal的气候适宜区域将减少3%-14%。
Worldwide, amphibians are threatened by several factors including climate change and pathogens. One emerging fungal pathogen,Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans(Bsal) has caused die-offs of European salamander populations, representing a conservation concern for hotspots of salamander diversity in the United States of America (U.S.A). While Bsal has not been detected in the U.S.A., previous work has suggested high invasion potential. As species susceptibility to Bsal is temperature dependent, we expect climate change to impact Bsal risk, which has not been explored. Here, we used predicted changes in environmental conditions, species-specific susceptibility estimates, and novel approaches assessing introduction risks to estimate current and future Bsal invasion risk. To generate predictions, we used geospatial data representing introduction risks, species susceptibility, and climatic suitability. Across climatic scenarios, our models predicted greatest overall risk of Bsal emergence in the southeastern and northwestern U.S.A. Bsal climatic suitability was greatest in the northwest, whereas the greatest number of susceptible species was predicted in the southeast. Under future scenarios, we predicted that climatically suitable areas for Bsal will be reduced by 3–14 % under the most extreme climate model.