Space-time point-process models for earthquake occurrences
Space-time point-process models for earthquake occurrences
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DOI：
10.1023/a:1003403601725
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发表时间：
1998-06-01
影响因子：
1
通讯作者：
Ogata, Y
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ogata, Y
基于聚类的经典经验研究和一些更投机的假设，构建了几个时空统计模型。然后，我们讨论包含有关时空簇形式的对比假设的模型之间的歧视。我们还研究了该模型的进一步实际扩展，即背景地震性在空间上是非均匀的情况，并且簇是非异分的。通过AIC值衡量的模型的拟合优点：在不同的构造区域中讨论了两个高质量数据集。 AIC还允许阐明空间中聚类结构的细节。提供了用于模型的仿真算法，并用于确认可能性计算的数值准确性。模拟数据集显示了与真实数据的相似空间分布，但在某些时空聚类的特征中与它们不同。这些差异可能为进一步研究提供有用的方向指标。
Several space-time statistical models are constructed based on both classical empirical studies of clustering and some more speculative hypotheses. Then we discuss the discrimination between models incorporating contrasting assumptions concerning the form of the space-time clusters. We also examine further practical extensions of the model to situations where the background seismicity is spatially non-homogeneous, and the clusters are nonisotropic. The goodness-of-fit of the models, as measured by AIC values: is discussed for two high quality data sets, in different tectonic regions. AIC also allows the details of the clustering structure in space to be clarified. A simulation algorithm for the models is provided, and used to confirm the numerical accuracy of the likelihood calculations. The simulated data sets show the similar spatial distributions to the real ones, but differ from them in some features of space-time clustering. These differences may provide useful indicators of directions for further study.