New Generation of Climate Models Track Recent Unprecedented Changes in Earth's Radiation Budget Observed by CERES
New Generation of Climate Models Track Recent Unprecedented Changes in Earth's Radiation Budget Observed by CERES
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DOI：
10.1029/2019gl086705
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发表时间：
2020-03-16
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Wyser, Klaus
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Loeb, Norman G.;Wang, Hailan;Wyser, Klaus
我们比较了云和地球辐射能系统（CERES）观测到的大气顶（TOA）辐射通量，以及在海面温度（SST）和海冰边界条件强迫下的7种大气环流模式的模拟结果。在21世纪初所谓的全球变暖“中断”之后，赤道和东太平洋（EP）上空的海温增加，模拟的TOA通量变化与CERES非常相似。两者都显示出在热带太平洋西部和中部，短波和长波TOA通量的变化在很大程度上抵消了，EP低云区域的短波通量大幅减少。模式反映全球平均净TOA通量与地表温度之间关系变化的能力取决于它对低云区域短波通量变化的反映程度，大多数模式对极温海温变化的敏感性过低，这表明与观测相比，“模式效应”可能太弱。
We compare top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes observed by the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) and simulated by seven general circulation models forced with observed sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice boundary conditions. In response to increased SSTs along the equator and over the eastern Pacific (EP) following the so-called global warming "hiatus" of the early 21st century, simulated TOA flux changes are remarkably similar to CERES. Both show outgoing shortwave and longwave TOA flux changes that largely cancel over the west and central tropical Pacific, and large reductions in shortwave flux for EP low-cloud regions. A model's ability to represent changes in the relationship between global mean net TOA flux and surface temperature depends upon how well it represents shortwave flux changes in low-cloud regions, with most showing too little sensitivity to EP SST changes, suggesting a "pattern effect" that may be too weak compared to observations.