Continued Warming of the Permafrost Regions Over the Northern Hemisphere Under Future Climate Change
Continued Warming of the Permafrost Regions Over the Northern Hemisphere Under Future Climate Change
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DOI：
10.1029/2022ef002835
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发表时间：
2022-09
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
G. Hu;Lin Zhao;Tonghua Wu;Xiaodong Wu;Hotaek Park;Ren Li;Xiaofan Zhu;J. Ni;D. Zou;
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. Hu;Lin Zhao;Tonghua Wu;Xiaodong Wu;Hotaek Park;Ren Li;Xiaofan Zhu;J. Ni;D. Zou;
在北方多年冻土区，地表气温直接影响冻土的热状态。有必要了解气温的趋势，并考虑实际的CMIP未来情景输出，而不是在不同的永久冻土区的线性温度上升。在这项研究中，根据PRONH的观测数据评估了第六次耦合模式相互比较项目（CMIP 6）的23个模式的气温。结果表明，大多数模式合理地代表了气温变化的主导特征。在三种不同的未来情景下，空气温度和变暖的趋势进行了检查，使用最佳模式集合。结果表明，年平均气温（MAAT）在零星多年冻土区和孤立多年冻土区高于连续多年冻土区。MAAT变暖率在1900年至2014年和1980年至2014年分别为0.10°C/十年和0.35°C/十年，在低排放到高排放情景下，2015年至2100年分别为0.09°C/十年，0.38°C/十年和0.95°C/十年。在高海拔、过渡性和高纬度永久冻土区之间，气温变化很大，在未来的情景下，变暖趋势在高纬度永久冻土区最大。此外，不同永冻层类别的变暖趋势与1900年至2014年的历史值变化不大，并且在未来情景下，从孤立的永冻层区域逐渐增加到连续的永冻层区域。结果表明，从1980年到2014年，在未来三种情景下，PRONH的气温变暖速度比全球气温快约1.6倍。
Surface air temperatures can directly affect the thermal state of permafrost in the permafrost region of the Northern Hemisphere (PRONH). It is necessary to understand the trends in air temperatures and consider actual CMIP future scenario output instead of a linear temperature increase over different permafrost regions. In this study, air temperatures from 23 models of the sixth coupled‐model intercomparison project (CMIP6) are evaluated against observational data from the PRONH. It is shown that most of the models reasonably represent the dominant characteristics of air temperature variations. Under three different future scenarios, air temperature and warming trends are examined using an optimal model ensemble. Results show that mean annual air temperature (MAAT) is higher in sporadic‐permafrost and isolated‐permafrost regions than in continuous‐permafrost regions. MAAT warming rates were 0.10°C/decade and 0.35°C/decade from 1900 to 2014 and from 1980 to 2014, respectively, and were 0.09°C/decade, 0.38°C/decade, and 0.95°C/decade from 2015 to 2100 under the low‐ to high‐emission scenarios. Air temperature varies considerably between the high‐altitude, transitional, and high‐latitude permafrost regions (HLR), and warming trends are the greatest in HLR under future scenarios. Moreover, warming trends in different permafrost classes vary little from the historical values from 1900 to 2014, and with a gradual increase from isolated‐permafrost regions to continuous‐permafrost regions under future scenarios. The results suggested that air temperatures in the PRONH warmed approximately 1.6 times faster than global air temperatures from 1980 to 2014 and under the three future scenarios.