How long will it take? Power biases time predictions
How long will it take? Power biases time predictions
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jesp.2010.03.005
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发表时间：
2010-07-01
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Guinote, Ana
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Weick, Mario;Guinote, Ana
人们倾向于低估完成任务所需的时间这种偏见被称为规划谬误，它源于人们倾向于将注意力过于狭隘地集中在设想的目标上，而忽略了其他信息，这些信息可以使预测更准确，更少偏见。四项研究检验了权力强化低估未来任务完成时间的倾向的假设。在一系列任务领域，并使用权力的多种操作化，包括对结果的实际控制（研究1），（研究2和3），和个体差异（研究4），权力一贯导致更乐观和不太准确的时间预测的支持被发现的作用，注意力集中的潜在机制，这些影响的差异乐观，自我效能，和情绪并没有导致强大的个人预测更大的偏见，我们讨论了这些研究结果对机构决策过程和职业健康的影响（C）2010 Elsevier Inc版权所有
People tend to underestimate the time it takes to accomplish tasks This bias known as the planning fallacy derives from the tendency to focus attention too narrowly on the envisaged goal and to ignore additional information that could make predictions more accurate and less biased Drawing on recent research showing that power induces attentional focus, four studies tested the hypothesis that power strengthens the tendency to underestimate future task completion time Across a range of task domains, and using multiple operationalizations of power, including actual control over outcomes (Study 1), priming (Studies 2 and 3), and individual differences (Study 4), power consistently led to more optimistic and less accurate time predictions Support was found for the role of attentional focus as an underlying mechanism for those effects Differences in optimism, self-efficacy, and mood did not contribute to the greater bias in powerful individuals forecasts We discuss the implications of these findings for institutional decision processes and occupational health (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc All rights reserved