Probabilistic risk analysis of corrosion associated failures in cast iron water mains
Probabilistic risk analysis of corrosion associated failures in cast iron water mains
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ress.2003.12.007
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发表时间：
2004-10-01
影响因子：
8.1
通讯作者：
Kleiner, Y
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sadiq, R;Rajani, B;Kleiner, Y
本文提出了一种方法，采用概率风险分析应用于灰铸铁水管腐蚀相关的故障。外部腐蚀降低了管道抵抗应力的能力。当外部应力超过剩余极限强度时，管道破裂变得迫在眉睫，并且供水管网的整体可靠性降低。对作用于管道的应力和外部腐蚀进行建模涉及机械/统计模型及其输入参数中固有的不确定性。采用蒙特卡罗（MC）模拟进行概率分析。计算了水管的安全系数（FOS）随时间的减少，故障定义为FOS小于1的情况。MC模拟得出了失效时间的经验概率密度函数，并拟合对数正态分布，从而导出失效危险函数。敏感性分析表明，腐蚀参数的故障时间的变异性的贡献比所有其他参数的组合贡献更显着。确定了需要进行更多研究的领域。皇冠版权（C）2004年出版的爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有战斗。
This paper proposes a method using probabilistic risk analysis for application to corrosion associated failures in grey cast iron water mains. External corrosion reduces the capacity of the pipeline to resist stresses. When external stresses exceed the residual ultimate strength, pipe breakage becomes imminent, and the overall reliability of a water distribution network is reduced. Modelling stresses and external corrosion acting on a pipe involves uncertainties inherent in the mechanistic/statistical models and their input parameters. Monte Carlo (MC) simulations were used to perform the probabilistic analysis. The reduction in the factor of safety (FOS) of water mains over time was computed, with a failure defined as a situation in which FOS becomes smaller than 1. The MC simulations yielded an empirical probability density function of time to failure, to which a lognormal distribution was fitted leading to the derivation of a failure hazard function. A sensitivity analysis revealed that the contribution of corrosion parameters to the variability of time to failure was more significant than the combined contributions of all other parameters. Areas where more research is needed are identified. Crown Copyfight (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All fights reserved.