Birth intervals, postponement, and fertility decline in Africa: A new type of transition?
Birth intervals, postponement, and fertility decline in Africa: A new type of transition?
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DOI：
10.1080/00324728.2012.701660
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发表时间：
2012-01-01
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Timaeus, Ian M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Moultrie, Tom A.;Sayi, Takudzwa S.;Timaeus, Ian M.
我们使用自1986年以来进行的76项人口与健康调查的数据，对24个非洲国家的出生间隔动态进行了调查。使用Brass-Juarez方法和回归模型对出生历史数据中的选择偏差进行控制，得到了几乎相同的结果。在每个接受检查的国家，生育间隔都延长了。这项分析揭示了撒哈拉以南非洲普遍存在的一种独特的、以前没有记录在案的生育模式。在考虑生育间隔长度的时间趋势后，几乎每个国家的生育间隔延长都几乎不会因妇女的年龄或胎次而变化。此外，在一些国家，生育间隔太长，不能根据女性最小的孩子的年龄来解释生育间隔。相反，女性推迟生育是出于其他原因。这些发现为撒哈拉以南非洲的生育率转变遵循不同于其他地方观察到的模式的观点提供了经验支持。
We investigated birth-interval dynamics in 24 African countries using data from 76 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted since 1986. Controlling for selection bias in the birth-history data using the Brass-Juarez method and regression models produced almost identical results. Birth intervals have lengthened in every country examined. This analysis uncovered a distinctive and previously undocumented pattern of childbearing that is prevalent across sub-Saharan Africa. After allowing for time trends in birth-interval length, the lengthening of birth intervals in almost every country varies little by women's age or parity. Moreover, in several countries, birth intervals are now too long to be explicable by birth spacing contingent on the age of women's youngest child. Rather, women are postponing births for other reasons. These findings offer empirical support for the idea that the fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa is following a different pattern from that observed elsewhere.