Design options for sample-based mortality surveillance
Design options for sample-based mortality surveillance
复制标题
DOI：
10.1093/ije/dyi101
复制
发表时间：
2005-10-01
影响因子：
7.7
通讯作者：
Lopez, AD
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Begg, S;Rao, C;Lopez, AD
关于死亡原因的可靠信息是卫生发展战略的一个基本组成部分，但全球只有约三分之一的国家能够获得此类信息。对于目前没有适当的死亡率报告制度的国家来说，除了资源密集型的全民医疗认证之外，还有其他有用的模式。基于抽样的死亡率监测就是这样一种方法。本文提供的方法，以解决适当的样本量的考虑，死亡率监测，特别是参考的情况下，事先的信息mortality is lacking.Methods的可行性模型为基础的方法预测预期的死亡率结构和原因组成的人口中，只有有限的经验数据是可用的。然后，提供了一种算法的方法，以获得最低的人-年的观察需要产生强大的估计，在三个假设的人口，每个代表不同水平的健康development.Results模型的出生时的预期寿命和死亡结构的原因的兴趣的最罕见的原因是在预期范围内的基础上公布的估计在可比水平的国家的健康发展。在每个人群中所需的观察总人年可以通过限制一组年龄，性别和原因组被视为“感兴趣”的一半以上。讨论提出的方法是一致的哲学，建立跨广泛的集群的原因，其中公共卫生响应的影响是相似的优先事项。所提供的例子说明了在考虑为人口健康监测目的设计死亡率监测时可采用的各种选择。
Background Reliable information on causes of death is a fundamental component of health development strategies, yet globally only about one-third of countries have access to such information. For countries currently without adequate mortality reporting systems there are useful models other than resource-intensive population-wide medical certification. Sample-based mortality surveillance is one such approach. This paper provides methods for addressing appropriate sample size considerations in relation to mortality surveillance, with particular reference to situations in which prior information on mortality is lacking.Methods The feasibility of model-based approaches for predicting the expected mortality structure and cause composition is demonstrated for populations in which only limited empirical data is available. An algorithm approach is then provided to derive the minimum person-years of observation needed to generate robust estimates for the rarest cause of interest in three hypothetical populations, each representing different levels of health development.Results Modelled life expectancies at birth and cause of death structures were within expected ranges based on published estimates for countries at comparable levels of health development. Total person-years of observation required in each population could be more than halved by limiting the set of age, sex, and cause groups regarded as 'of interest'.Discussion The methods proposed are consistent with the philosophy of establishing priorities across broad clusters of causes for which the public health response implications are similar. The examples provided illustrate the options available when considering the design of mortality surveillance for population health monitoring purposes.