A Delphi-Based Framework for systems architecting of in-orbit exploration infrastructure for human exploration beyond Low Earth Orbit☆
A Delphi-Based Framework for systems architecting of in-orbit exploration infrastructure for human exploration beyond Low Earth Orbit☆
复制标题
基于德尔福的在轨探索基础设施系统架构框架，用于人类近地轨道以外的探索☆
DOI：
10.1016/j.actaastro.2013.08.004
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发表时间：
2014
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
E. Crawley
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Alessandro Aliakbargolkar;E. Crawley
美国载人航天计划当前的争论重点是下一代载人重型运载火箭的开发。虽然运载火箭系统对于未来的勘探至关重要，但需要对整个勘探基础设施进行全面分析，以避免在设计过程的早期阶段出现代价高昂的陷阱。本文通过提出一个基于 Delphi 的系统架构框架来满足这一需求，该框架用于对近地轨道以外的载人太空探索的未来在轨基础设施进行集成架构分析。本文分为两部分。第一部分包括专家启发研究，以确定太空运输基础设施的目标。这项研究是在2011年11月至2012年1月期间由美国和欧洲的15名参与载人航天的高级专家进行的。启发研究包括组建三个专家小组，代表勘探、科学和政策利益相关者，参与三轮德尔菲研究。讨论了从社会科学研究中引入的德尔菲方法背后的基本原理。最后，提出了德尔菲法的新版本，并将其应用于载人航天探索背景下的技术决策和系统架构。本文的第二部分描述了在轨基础设施的贸易空间探索研究以及专家启发的需求定义练习。分析中明确考虑了与技术要求和利益相关者目标相关的不确定性。专家征求过程的结果描绘了载人航天界内利益相关者需求的综合观点。随后，需求被转换为需求，并与感兴趣的系统架构耦合，以分析探索、科学和政策目标之间的相关性。帕累托分析用于识别感兴趣的架构，以供决策者进一步考虑。本文最后总结了见解，并制定了未来几十年勘探基础设施演进发展的战略。该分析产生的最重要的结果是确定了一个关键的、不可简化的模糊性，它破坏了未来三十年太空运输基础设施的价值交付：目的地选择。整个社区，尤其是勘探和政策利益相关者，还远未就目的地达成共识。认识到这种模糊性，呼吁美国宇航局推动就这一主题建立一个开放论坛，并为政策制定者提供强有力的案例，以激励未来几十年对载人航天行业的投资。
The current debate in the U.S. Human Spaceflight Program focuses on the development of the next generation of man-rated heavy lift launch vehicles. While launch vehicle systems are of critical importance for future exploration, a comprehensive analysis of the entire exploration infrastructure is required to avoid costly pitfalls at early stages of the design process. This paper addresses this need by presenting a Delphi-Based Systems Architecting Framework for integrated architectural analysis of future in-orbit infrastructure for human space exploration beyond Low Earth Orbit. The paper is structured in two parts.The first part consists of an expert elicitation study to identify objectives for the in-space transportation infrastructure. The study was conducted between November 2011 and January 2012 with 15 senior experts involved in human spaceflight in the United States and Europe. The elicitation study included the formation of three expert panels representing exploration, science, and policy stakeholders engaged in a 3-round Delphi study. The rationale behind the Delphi approach, as imported from social science research, is discussed. Finally, a novel version of the Delphi method is presented and applied to technical decision-making and systems architecting in the context of human space exploration.The second part of the paper describes a tradespace exploration study of in-orbit infrastructure coupled with a requirements definition exercise informed by expert elicitation. The uncertainties associated with technical requirements and stakeholder goals are explicitly considered in the analysis. The outcome of the expert elicitation process portrays an integrated view of perceived stakeholder needs within the human spaceflight community. Needs are subsequently converted into requirements and coupled to the system architectures of interest to analyze the correlation between exploration, science, and policy goals. Pareto analysis is used to identify architectures of interest for further consideration by decision-makers.The paper closes with a summary of insights and develops a strategy for evolutionary development of the exploration infrastructure of the incoming decades. The most important result produced by this analysis is the identification of a critical irreducible ambiguity undermining value delivery for the in-space transportation infrastructure of the next three decades: destination choice. Consensus on destination is far from being reached by the community at large, with particular reference to exploration and policy stakeholders. The realization of this ambiguity is a call for NASA to promote an open forum on this topic, and to develop a strong case for policy makers to incentivize investments in the human spaceflight industry in the next decades.