Using high resolution climate models to explore future changes in post-tropical cyclone precipitation
Using high resolution climate models to explore future changes in post-tropical cyclone precipitation
复制标题
利用高分辨率气候模型探索热带气旋后降水的未来变化
DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/ad2163
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发表时间：
2024
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Reed, Kevin A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bower, Erica;Reed, Kevin A.
气候变化最昂贵的影响之一将是它对极端天气事件的影响，包括热带气旋。了解这些变化越来越重要，高分辨率的全球气候模式为此类研究提供了潜力，特别是对TC。除了与TC在变暖气候中的行为相关的困难之外，TC向后热带气旋（PTC）的外热带过渡（ET）在理解这些事件和任何潜在的未来变化时带来了另一个挑战。PTC可以产生过多的降雨，尽管失去了原来的热带特征。本研究探讨的PTCs和降水的代表性在三个高分辨率（25-50公里）的气候模式：CNRM，MRI，HadGEM。所有这三个模型都同意在未来变暖情景中TC和PTC事件的模拟减少，但它们在这些变化的模拟区域模式中缺乏一致性，这在PTC相关降水的区域变化中进一步明显。这些模式还与ET过程期间和之后的风暴强度演变有关。尽管在模拟强度和区域特征方面存在这些局限性，但这些模式都模拟了PTC中10 mm h− 1以上降雨率的变化。在气候变暖的情况下，这些高降雨率的可能性增加了4%-12%，导致累积降雨量增加了5%-12%。
One of the most costly effects of climate change will be its impact on extreme weather events, including tropical cyclones (TCs). Understanding these changes is of growing importance, and high resolution global climate models are providing potential for such studies, specifically for TCs. Beyond the difficulties associated with TC behavior in a warming climate, the extratropical transition (ET) of TCs into post-tropical cyclones (PTCs) creates another challenge when understanding these events and any potential future changes. PTCs can produce excessive rainfall despite losing their original tropical characteristics. The present study examines the representation of PTCs and their precipitation in three high resolution (25–50 km) climate models: CNRM, MRI, and HadGEM. All three of these models agree on a simulated decrease in TC and PTC events in the future warming scenario, yet they lack consistency in simulated regional patterns of these changes, which is further evident in regional changes in PTC-related precipitation. The models also struggle with their represented intensity evolution of storms during and after the ET process. Despite these limitations in simulating intensity and regional characteristics, the models all simulate a shift toward more frequent rain rates above 10 mm h− 1 in PTCs. These high rain rates become 4%–12% more likely in the warmer climate scenario, resulting in a 5%–12% increase in accumulated rainfall from these rates.