The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China
The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China
复制标题
DOI：
10.1126/science.abb4218
复制
发表时间：
2020-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Scarpino, Samuel V.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kraemer, Moritz U. G.;Yang, Chia-Hung;Scarpino, Samuel V.
正在进行的2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）疫情在中国迅速蔓延。在中国和世界范围内，采取了重大的行为、临床和国家干预措施，以减轻疫情并防止病毒在人群中持续存在。目前尚不清楚这些前所未有的干预措施（包括旅行限制）是如何影响COVID-19在中国的传播的。我们使用来自武汉的实时流动数据和包括旅行史在内的详细病例数据来阐明病例输入在中国各城市传播中的作用，并确定控制措施的影响。早期，人类流动数据很好地解释了中国COVID-19病例的空间分布。在实施控制措施后，这种相关性下降，大多数地区的增长率变为负值，尽管报告病例的人口统计学变化仍然表明存在武汉以外的本地传播链。这项研究表明，中国实施的严厉控制措施大大缓解了COVID-19的传播。
The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak expanded rapidly Throughout China. Major behavioral, clinical, and state interventions were undertaken to mitigate the epidemic and prevent the persistence of the virus in human populations in China and worldwide. It remains unclear how these unprecedented interventions, including travel restrictions, affected COVID-19 spread in China. We used real-time mobility data from Wuhan and detailed case data including travel history to elucidate the role of case importation in transmission in cities across China and to ascertain the impact of control measures. Early on, the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases in China was explained well by human mobility data. After the implementation of control measures, this correlation dropped and growth rates became negative in most locations, although shifts in the demographics of reported cases were still indicative of local chains of transmission outside of Wuhan. This study shows that the drastic control measures implemented in China substantially mitigated the spread of COVID-19.