The causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP in Albania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania: Evidence from ARDL bound testing approach
The causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP in Albania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania: Evidence from ARDL bound testing approach
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DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2009.10.010
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发表时间：
2010-06
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
I. Ozturk;Ali Acaravci
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
I. Ozturk;Ali Acaravci
本研究的目的是调查能源和经济增长之间的因果关系，在阿尔巴尼亚，保加利亚，匈牙利和罗马尼亚从1980年至2006年，采用人均能源使用量，人均电力消费量和人均真实的GDP变量。为了检验这种联系，我们使用Engle和格兰杰模型中的两个步骤：第一步，我们利用最近发展起来的自回归分布滞后（ARDL）边界检验方法来探讨变量之间的长期关系。其次，我们采用动态向量误差修正（VEC）模型来检验变量之间的因果关系。边界测试产生的证据，人均能源使用和真实的人均国内生产总值之间的长期关系和证据的双向（双向）强格兰杰因果关系，这些变量之间只有在匈牙利。另一方面，ARDL边界测试结果表明，阿尔巴尼亚，保加利亚和罗马尼亚的能源消费变量和真实的人均GDP之间没有一个独特的长期或均衡关系。换句话说，在这三个国家，这些变量之间不存在协整关系。计量经济学分析表明，阿尔巴尼亚，保加利亚和罗马尼亚的动态误差修正模型中的任何因果关系都无法估计。
The purpose of this study is to investigate the causal relationship between energy and economic growth in Albania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania from 1980 to 2006 by employing energy use per capita, electric power consumption per capita and real GDP per capita variables. To examine this linkage, we use the two-step procedure from the Engle and Granger model: In first step, we explore the long-run relationships between the variables by using recently developed autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach of cointegration. Secondly, we employ a dynamic vector error correction (VEC) model to test causal relationships between variables. The bounds test yields evidence of a long-run relationship between energy use per capita and real GDP per capita and evidence of two-way (bidirectional) strong Granger causality between these variables only in Hungary. On the other hand, the ARDL bounds test results show that there is no a unique long-term or equilibrium relationship between energy consumption variables and real GDP per capita in Albania, Bulgaria and Romania. In other words, no cointegration exists between these variables in these three countries. The econometric analysis suggests that any causal relationships within dynamic error correction model for Albania, Bulgaria and Romania cannot be estimated.