Effect of Anthropogenic Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes on Climate and Land Carbon Storage in CMIP5 Projections for the Twenty-First Century
Effect of Anthropogenic Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes on Climate and Land Carbon Storage in CMIP5 Projections for the Twenty-First Century
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DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-12-00623.1
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发表时间：
2013-09-01
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Weiss, M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Brovkin, V.;Boysen, L.;Weiss, M.
土地利用变化对气候的影响进行了评估，使用特定的浓度模拟补充代表性的浓度路径2.6（RCP2.6）和RCP8.5的情景进行耦合模式相互比较项目（CMIP 5）的第5阶段。这项分析的重点是到21世纪末有和没有土地利用变化的模拟的总体平均值之间的气候和陆-气通量的差异。尽管使用了共同的土地使用情景，但作物和牧场的面积对于每个地球系统模型都是特定的。这是由于对土地使用类别的不同解释。分析表明，化石燃料强迫占主导地位的土地利用强迫。此外，土地利用变化的影响在全球范围内并不显著，而在土地利用变化超过10%的地区则显著。对于这些区域，六个参与模式中的三个-第二代加拿大地球系统模式（CanESM 2）;哈德利中心全球环境模式第二版（地球系统）（HadGEM 2-ES）;气候跨学科研究模式地球系统模式（MIROC-ESM）-显示了年平均地表气温在统计上的显著变化。此外，在受土地利用变化影响的地区，地表水、可利用能量和潜热通量的变化虽然很小，但对大多数无害环境措施来说意义重大。这些气候影响相对较小，因为RCP2.6和RCP8.5情景中的土地利用变化幅度较小，主要限于热带和亚热带地区。土地利用变化的气候影响的相对重要性在RCP2.6情景中更高，该情景认为扩大生物燃料农田是一种气候缓解办法。所有模型之间的基本相似之处是由于土地利用变化造成的全球土地碳储存的损失。
The effects of land-use changes on climate are assessed using specified-concentration simulations complementary to the representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) and RCP8.5 scenarios performed for phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This analysis focuses on differences in climate and land-atmosphere fluxes between the ensemble averages of simulations with and without land-use changes by the end of the twenty-first century. Even though common land-use scenarios are used, the areas of crops and pastures are specific for each Earth system model (ESM). This is due to different interpretations of land-use classes. The analysis reveals that fossil fuel forcing dominates land-use forcing. In addition, the effects of land-use changes are globally not significant, whereas they are significant for regions with land-use changes exceeding 10%. For these regions, three out of six participating models-the Second Generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2); Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2 (Earth System) (HadGEM2-ES); and Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, Earth System Model (MIROC-ESM)-reveal statistically significant changes in mean annual surface air temperature. In addition, changes in land surface albedo, available energy, and latent heat fluxes are small but significant for most ESMs in regions affected by land-use changes. These climatic effects are relatively small, as land-use changes in the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios are small in magnitude and mainly limited to tropical and subtropical regions. The relative importance of the climatic effects of land-use changes is higher for the RCP2.6 scenario, which considers an expansion of biofuel croplands as a climate mitigation option. The underlying similarity among all models is the loss in global land carbon storage due to land-use changes.