A PRELIMINARY SYNTHESIS OF MODELED CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON US REGIONAL OZONE CONCENTRATIONS
A PRELIMINARY SYNTHESIS OF MODELED CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON US REGIONAL OZONE CONCENTRATIONS
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DOI：
10.1175/2009bams2568.1
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发表时间：
2009-12-01
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
Wuebbles, D. J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Weaver, C. P.;Liang, X. -Z.;Wuebbles, D. J.
本文综述了最近对美国区域臭氧浓度对全球气候变化(约2050年)的潜在敏感性进行的模拟研究的结果。这项研究是在美国环境保护署(EPA)正在进行的评估工作的支持下进行的，该评估工作旨在提高对气候、排放、大气化学和空气质量之间多种复杂相互作用的科学理解。最终目标是通过改进对包括臭氧在内的全球变化对空气质量的潜在影响的表征，提高空气质量管理人员在决策中考虑全球变化的能力。这里讨论的结果是临时的，代表了EPA评估的第一阶段。第一阶段的目的是单独考虑气候变化对空气质量的影响，而不考虑人为先质污染物排放量的变化。在不同小组进行的所有模拟实验中，模拟的全球气候变化导致该国大部分地区夏季平均日最大8小时平均臭氧浓度增加几到几个百万分之几(Ppb)。然而，不同的建模实验通常不会模拟相同的区域变化模式。这些差异似乎在很大程度上是由于模拟的关键气象驱动因素的变化模式的变化，如温度和地表日照。在模拟臭氧对气候变化的反应中，如何在不同的模拟系统中表示硝酸异戊二烯的化学是一个额外的关键因素。
This paper provides a synthesis of results that have emerged from recent modeling studies of the potential sensitivity of U.S. regional ozone (O3) concentrations to global climate change (ca. 2050). This research has been carried out under the auspices of an ongoing U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) assessment effort to increase scientific understanding of the multiple complex interactions among climate, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, and air quality. The ultimate goal is to enhance the ability of air quality managers to consider global change in their decisions through improved characterization of the potential effects of global change on air quality, including O3The results discussed here are interim, representing the first phase of the EPA assessment. The aim in this first phase was to consider the effects of climate change alone on air quality, without accompanying changes in anthropogenic emissions of precursor pollutants. Across all of the modeling experiments carried out by the different groups, simulated global climate change causes increases of a few to several parts per billion (ppb) in summertime mean maximum daily 8-h average O3concentrations over substantial regions of the country. The different modeling experiments in general do not, however, simulate the same regional patterns of change. These differences seem to result largely from variations in the simulated patterns of changes in key meteorological drivers, such as temperature and surface insolation. How isoprene nitrate chemistry is represented in the different modeling systems is an additional critical factor in the simulated O3response to climate change.