The role of land use change in the recent warming of daily extreme temperatures
The role of land use change in the recent warming of daily extreme temperatures
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DOI：
10.1002/grl.50159
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发表时间：
2013-02-16
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Betts, Richard A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Christidis, Nikolaos;Stott, Peter A.;Betts, Richard A.
了解极端温度在人类活动造成的气候中如何反应是非常重要的，因为极端温度对健康有害，往往导致死亡率上升。虽然以前的探测和归因研究表明，人类对最近的日极端变暖有重大影响，但此类研究尚未调查土地利用变化等个别人为强迫的贡献。在这里，我们应用了一种最佳的指纹技术，对观测数据和新的地球系统模型的实验数据进行分析，以检验土地利用的变化是否导致了准全球尺度上每日极端温度的可检测变化。我们发现，自前工业化时代以来，树木的减少和草地的增加导致了平均和极端温度的总体冷却趋势，这在观测到的温暖极端温度变化中可以检测到，但在寒冷极端温度中没有检测到。在所有情况下均检测到除土地利用以外的人为强迫导致的平均温度和极端温度变暖，而在任何情况下均未检测到自然气候强迫的较弱影响。这是第一次将观测到的气候变化正式归因于不断变化的土地利用，这表明进一步的调查是合理的，特别是在极端温暖的研究中。引文：Christidis， N.， P. A. Stott， G. C. Hegerl和R. A. Betts(2013)，土地利用变化在近期每日极端温度变暖中的作用，地球物理学。卷。中文信息学报，40,589-594,doi:10.1002/grl.50159。
Understanding how temperature extremes respond in a climate forced by human activity is of great importance, as extreme temperatures are detrimental to health and often responsible for mortality increases. While previous detection and attribution studies demonstrated a significant human influence on the recent warming of daily extremes, contributions of individual anthropogenic forcings like changes in land use have not yet been investigated in such studies. Here we apply an optimal fingerprinting technique to data from observations and experiments with a new earth system model to examine whether changing land use has led to detectable changes in daily extreme temperatures on a quasi-global scale. We find that loss of trees and increase of grassland since preindustrial times has caused an overall cooling trend in both mean and extreme temperatures which is detectable in the observed changes of warm but not cold extremes. The warming in both mean and extreme temperatures due to anthropogenic forcings other than land use is detected in all cases, whereas the weaker effect of natural climatic forcings is not detected in any. This is the first formal attribution of observed climatic changes to changing land use, suggesting further investigations are justified, particularly in studies of warm extremes. Citation: Christidis, N., P. A. Stott, G. C. Hegerl, and R. A. Betts (2013), The role of land use change in the recent warming of daily extreme temperatures, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 589-594, doi:10.1002/grl.50159.