Getting from here to there - energy technology transformation pathways in the EMF27 scenarios
Getting from here to there - energy technology transformation pathways in the EMF27 scenarios
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-013-0947-5
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发表时间：
2014-04-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Kriegler, Elmar
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Krey, Volker;Luderer, Gunnar;Kriegler, Elmar
能源建模论坛 (EMF) 27 研究基于大量能源经济和综合评估模型，系统地探讨了技术成本和可用性对能源系统向气候稳定转型的可行性和宏观经济成本的影响。在最高层面上，EMF27所有场景中阐述的技术战略包括三个要素：能源供应脱碳、增加终端使用中低碳能源载体的使用以及减少能源使用。情景的不同之处在于这些不同战略要素的实施程度、实施时间以及相关的宏观经济成本。该研究还讨论了个别技术对于实现气候稳定的价值。一项强有力的发现是，碳捕获和储存的不可用以及生物能源的有限可用性对将大气浓度稳定在低水平的可行性和宏观经济成本影响最大，主要是因为它们从大气中去除碳的综合能力。相比之下，核电、风能和太阳能等电力行业的限制选择对缓解成本的影响要小得多。
Based on a large number of energy-economic and integrated assessment models, the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 27 study systematically explores the implications of technology cost and availability for feasibility and macroeconomic costs of energy system transformations toward climate stabilization. At the highest level, the technology strategy articulated in all the scenarios in EMF27 includes three elements: decarbonization of energy supply, increasing the use of low-carbon energy carriers in end-use, and reduction of energy use. The way that the scenarios differ is in the degree to which these different elements of strategy are implemented, the timing of those implementations, and the associated macroeconomic costs. The study also discusses the value of individual technologies for achieving climate stabilization. A robust finding is that the unavailability of carbon capture and storage and limited availability of bioenergy have the largest impact on feasibility and macroeconomic costs for stabilizing atmospheric concentrations at low levels, mostly because of their combined ability to remove carbon from the atmosphere. Constraining options in the electric sector such as nuclear power, wind and solar energy in contrast has a much smaller impact on the cost of mitigation.