Innovations for sustainable lifestyles: an agent-based model approach
Innovations for sustainable lifestyles: an agent-based model approach
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DOI：
10.1007/s11625-018-0593-y
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发表时间：
2019-03-01
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
Varga, L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Allen, P.;Robinson, M.;Varga, L.
任何可持续性的科学方法的一个重要方面必须是能够评估可能的创新的影响的方法。显然，如果我们想要接近可持续发展，我们需要在生活方式上做出巨大的改变。”本文开发了一个基于主体的模型，该模型探讨了可能的创新对家庭消费和排放的可能影响。该模型随机选取了来自四个不同国家的大量家庭（这里是10,000个，但可以大得多），并计算采用特定创新所产生的影响。研究区域内家庭的生活方式被分为四个不同的领域。这些是生活、食物、流动性和能源。在这四个不同的领域进行了创新，模型显示了对总投入需求（材料、能源等）、家庭和食物浪费以及二氧化碳排放的总体影响，显示了该系统向可持续性发展的程度。通过使用Wuppertal研究所制定的每人每年8000kg投入材料的可持续性标准（Lettenmeier et al. in Resources 3:488- 515,2014, 10.3390/resources3030488, http://www.mdpi.com/journal/resources, ISSN 2079-9276），我们可以计算出一个国家或地区在采用可能的创新后离可持续性有多远。这是衡量每人每年所需投入总额的指标。它使我们能够表明，对于不同的国家，气候差异很大（例如芬兰和西班牙），不同的家庭创新将对实现可持续生活方式产生或多或少的影响。”该模型并没有假装对每个系统进行全面模拟，包括生态系统、经济类型等，但确实研究了一个家庭领域的创新对所有四个领域的影响，从而提供了可以改进当前决策的信息。报告还表明，虽然家庭可以通过减少对能源和材料的需求来大大改善这种情况，但需要在国家/区域一级采取一些行动才能实现可持续性。例如，可持续发展将要求停止在交通运输中使用化石燃料，并从可再生能源和核能转向清洁发电。如果没有这种改变，这些国家将无法实现可持续的生活方式。
An important aspect of any scientific approach to sustainability must be methods by which the impacts of possible innovations can be assessed. Clearly, we need to make massive changes in our lifestyles if we are to get anywhere near sustainability'. In this paper, an agent-based model' is developed which for this initial presentation explores probable impacts on household consumption and emissions of possible innovations. The model randomly picks a large number (here 10,000, but it can be much larger) of households from four different countries and calculates the effects resulting from the adoption of specific innovations. The lifestyle' of the households within the area studied is divided into four different domains'. These are living, food, mobility and energy. Innovations are launched in the four different domains and the model shows the overall effects on the total input requirements (materials, energy, etc.), the household and food wastes and the CO2 emissions, showing how far the system moves towards sustainability. By using the sustainability criteria of 8000kg input material' per year per individual developed by the Wuppertal Institute (Lettenmeier et al. in Resources 3:488-515, 2014, 10.3390/resources3030488, http://www.mdpi.com/journal/resources, ISSN 2079-9276), we can calculate how far the nation or region is from sustainability after adopting possible innovations. This is a measure of the total inputs required per individual per year. It allows us to show that for different countries, with widely different climates (e.g. Finland and Spain), different household innovations would have a greater or lesser impact on attaining sustainable lifestyles'. The model does not pretend to develop a full simulation of each system, including the ecosystem, type of economy, etc., but does look at the effect an innovation in one household domain will have on all four domains, thereby providing information that can improve current decisions. It also demonstrates that, although households' can do much to improve the situation by reducing their demand for energy and materials, some actions at a national/regional level will be required to achieve sustainability. For example, sustainability will require an end to the use of fossil fuels for transportation and a switch to clean' electrical power generation from renewables and nuclear sources. Without this change, these countries will find it impossible to reach a sustainable lifestyle.