Characterisation of dry spells for agricultural applications in Malawi
Characterisation of dry spells for agricultural applications in Malawi
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DOI：
10.1007/s42452-023-05413-9
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发表时间：
2023-06
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Ellasy Gulule Chimimba;C. Ngongondo;Chengxiu Li;B. Minoungou;M. Monjerezi;L. Eneya
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ellasy Gulule Chimimba;C. Ngongondo;Chengxiu Li;B. Minoungou;M. Monjerezi;L. Eneya
干旱是气候变化的危害之一，继续对农业部门造成压力，从而影响到粮食安全。了解一个地区的干旱特点有助于提出干预措施和适应措施等优势。本研究旨在通过使用气候危害组红外降水与1981年至2019年的站点降水数据来了解马拉维干旱期的特征。重点研究了干旱的空间分布、最大干旱日数、最大干旱日数的变化趋势和干旱发生的时间。采用R软件中的Mann-Kendal趋势分析对数据进行分析。结果表明，南部地区比马拉维其他两个地区发生干旱的次数要多。此外，南部地区经历了最多的干旱日数。中部地区最大干旱日数呈上升趋势，而其他地区最大干旱日数则呈上升趋势。局部尺度地形对干旱发生的影响也很明显。该研究进一步确定，雨季出现干旱的次数在3月底开始增加。在这方面，虽然研究地区的降雨季节被认为是从11月到4月，但研究建议生长季节应被认为是11月到3月，以便作物不受常见的季末干旱的影响。农民应该确保他们种植的作物将在这个生长期成熟。
Dry spells are one of the climate change hazards that continue to exert pressure on the agriculture sector, hence affecting food security. Understanding dry spell characteristics of an area helps in coming up with interventions and adaptive measures among other advantages. This study aimed at understanding characteristics of dry spells for Malawi by using climate hazards group infrared precipitation with stations precipitation data from 1981 to 2019. The study focused on the spatial distribution, maximum number of dry days, trend of maximum dry days and time of occurrence of dry spells. Data was analysed using Mann–Kendal trend analysis in R software. The results indicate a high number of occurrences of dry spells in the southern region than the other two regions of Malawi. In addition, the southern region experienced the highest maximum number of dry days. However, there is an upward trend for maximum days of dry spells in central region than all other regions. Local scale topographic influences on dry spell occurrence were also apparent. The study further established that the number of dry spell occurrence in the rainfall season starts to increase towards end of March. In this regard, although rainfall season in the study area is considered to be from November to April, the study recommends that growing season should be considered to be November to March so that crops are not affected by end of season dry spells which are common. Farmers should ensure that they plant crops that will mature with this growing period.