Cyclone Damage Risks Caused by Enhanced Greenhouse Conditions and Economic Viability of Strengthened Residential Construction
Cyclone Damage Risks Caused by Enhanced Greenhouse Conditions and Economic Viability of Strengthened Residential Construction
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DOI：
10.1061/(asce)nh.1527-6996.0000024
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发表时间：
2011-02
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
Yue Li;M. Stewart
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Yue Li;M. Stewart
飓风和热带气旋是造成经济损失和社会混乱的主要原因。此外，据政府间气候变化专门委员会称，温室条件的增强可能会增加热带气旋（飓风）的强度和（或）频率，这可能会造成更多的风灾。本文以澳大利亚北昆士兰州的住宅建设为例，建立了一个风险-成本-效益框架，以评估区域气旋灾害风险和几种减灾策略的经济可行性，以应对温室条件增强导致风灾潜在增加的挑战。该分析包括一个概率风模型来解释气旋强度和频率，以及一个脆弱性函数来表示给定风速下的潜在损害。50年来平均年最大风速从0增加到25%被认为是气候变化导致的风灾模式变化的不确定性。将考虑区域变化对建筑物库存、改造率、改造成本、脆弱性降低和贴现率的影响。基于风险的成本效益分析可用于帮助优化改造现有房屋的时间和程度，以适应温室条件增强的潜在影响。
Hurricanes and tropical cyclones constitute significant sources of economic loss and social disruption. Furthermore, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, enhanced greenhouse conditions may increase the intensity and/or frequency of tropical cyclones (hurricanes), which potentially will result in more wind damage. The paper develops a risk-cost-benefit framework to assess regional cyclone damage risks and economic viability of several hazard mitigation strategies to address the challenge of potential increase in wind damage due to enhanced greenhouse conditions, using residential construction in North Queensland, Australia as an example. The analysis includes a probabilistic wind model to account for cyclone intensity and frequency, and a vulnerability function to represent the potential damage for a given wind speed. Increases in mean annual maximum wind speed from 0 to 25% over 50 years are considered to represent the uncertainty in changing wind hazard patterns as a result of climate change. The effect of regional changes to building inventory, rate of retrofitting, cost of retrofit, reduction in vulnerability, and discount rate will be considered. The risk-based cost-benefit analysis can be used to help optimize the timing and extent of retrofitting existing houses to adapt to the potential impact of enhanced greenhouse conditions.