Digitalization and energy consumption. Does ICT reduce energy demand?
Digitalization and energy consumption. Does ICT reduce energy demand?
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106760
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发表时间：
2020-10-01
影响因子：
7
通讯作者：
Santarius, Tilman
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lange, Steffen;Pohl, Johanna;Santarius, Tilman
本文研究了数字化对能源消耗的影响。利用分析模型，我们研究了四个影响：(1)信息通信技术（ICT）的生产、使用和处置的直接影响；(2)数字化带来的能源效率提高；(3)劳动和能源生产率提高带来的经济增长；(4)ICT服务兴起带来的部门变革/三化。该分析结合了能源消耗与经济增长脱钩的辩论以及绿色信息技术和信息通信技术促进可持续发展的辩论的实证和理论结果。我们的主要结果是：效应1和效应3倾向于增加能源消耗。效应2和效应4倾向于降低它。此外，我们的分析表明，这两种增加效应普遍存在，因此，总体而言，数字化增加了能源消耗。这些结果可以用生态经济学的四个观点来解释：(a)物质资本和能源在信息通信技术部门是互补的，(b)能源效率的提高导致反弹效应，(c)信息通信技术不能解决经济增长与能源脱钩的困难，(d)信息通信技术服务是相对能源密集型的，并且是在以前的生产之上。未来，数字化只能促进效应2和4，而不能促进效应1和3，才能促进可持续发展。
This article investigates the effect of digitalization on energy consumption. Using an analytical model, we investigate four effects: (1) direct effects from the production, usage and disposal of information and communication technologies (ICT), (2) energy efficiency increases from digitalization, (3) economic growth from increases in labor and energy productivities and (4) sectoral change/tertiarization from the rise of ICT services. The analysis combines empirical and theoretical findings from debates on decoupling energy consumption from economic growth and from debates on green IT and ICT for sustainability. Our main results: Effects 1 and 3 tend to increase energy consumption. Effects 2 and 4 tend to decrease it. Furthermore, our analysis suggests that the two increasing effects prevail so that, overall, digitalization increases energy consumption. These results can be explained by four insights from ecological economics: (a) physical capital and energy are complements in the ICT sector, (b) increases in energy efficiency lead to rebound effects, (c) ICT cannot solve the difficulty of decoupling economic growth from exergy, (d) ICT services are relatively energy intensive and come on top of former production. In future, digitalization can only boost sustainability when it fosters effects 2 and 4 without promoting effects 1 and 3.