Cost and emissions pathways towards net-zero climate impacts in aviation
Cost and emissions pathways towards net-zero climate impacts in aviation
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-022-01485-4
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发表时间：
2022-09-29
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Barrett, Steven R. H.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dray, Lynnette;Schafer, Andreas W.;Barrett, Steven R. H.
航空业的排放量与巴黎气候协定的目标并不一致。我们评估了燃料途径--生物质合成燃料、绿色氢和大气CO2合成燃料以及直接使用绿色液氢--在多大程度上可以使航空业实现净零气候影响。再加上持续的效率提高和轨迹避免，但没有抵消，这样的能源转型可以将生命周期航空二氧化碳排放量与2019年水平相比减少89-94%，尽管到2050年需求将增长2-3倍。航空业可以管理相关的成本增长，与不干预基线相比，机票价格上涨不超过15%，导致需求抑制不到14%。这些途径将需要在30年期间进行大约0.5 -2.1万亿美元的折扣投资。然而，我们的途径仅将航空二氧化碳当量排放量减少了46-69%;需要采取更多行动来减轻非二氧化碳影响。
Aviation emissions are not on a trajectory consistent with Paris Climate Agreement goals. We evaluate the extent to which fuel pathways-synthetic fuels from biomass, synthetic fuels from green hydrogen and atmospheric CO2, and the direct use of green liquid hydrogen-could lead aviation towards net-zero climate impacts. Together with continued efficiency gains and contrail avoidance, but without offsets, such an energy transition could reduce lifecycle aviation CO2 emissions by 89-94% compared with year-2019 levels, despite a 2-3-fold growth in demand by 2050. The aviation sector could manage the associated cost increases, with ticket prices rising by no more than 15% compared with a no-intervention baseline leading to demand suppression of less than 14%. These pathways will require discounted investments on the order of US$0.5-2.1 trillion over a 30 yr period. However, our pathways reduce aviation CO2-equivalent emissions by only 46-69%; more action is required to mitigate non-CO2 impacts.