The potential distributions of African Azolla species and their implications for African wetland ecosystems for the future
The potential distributions of African Azolla species and their implications for African wetland ecosystems for the future
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DOI：
10.1002/ece3.9210
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发表时间：
2022-08-01
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Sessa, Emily B.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Karichu, Mwihaki J.;Ngarega, Boniface K.;Sessa, Emily B.
气候变化预计会影响水生生态系统中的物种。在非洲，可能影响水生物种反应的因素研究甚少，难以预测。在这项研究中，我们研究了在预测的气候变化情景下，三种水生蕨类植物Azolla在非洲的潜在分布。利用MaxEnt软件，利用发生数据和环境变量建立了三种植物的生态位模型。所有模型的AUC和TSS值都令人满意，表明预测精度较高（AUC和TSS > 0.801）。结果表明，海拔和降水是未来限制该物种扩展的最重要变量。此外，我们还观察到三个物种的气候生态位及其不同的气候适宜区存在显著差异。该物种目前的潜在分布范围在2,328,726 km ~ 4,026,363 km之间。根据模型预测，目前红豆属植物的潜在分布范围已经超出了已知和记录的范围；然而，在未来的气候条件下，由于气候变化，预计该物种将失去8.1%至48%的适宜栖息地。我们的研究结果可用于制定可持续的水生物种保护措施，并提高人们对气候变化影响的认识。
Climate change is predicted to affect species in aquatic ecosystems. In Africa, factors that may influence the responses of aquatic species are poorly studied and challenging to predict. In this study, we examined the potential distribution of three aquatic fern species in the genus Azolla in Africa under projected climate change scenarios. MaxEnt was used to create ecological niche models of the three species using occurrence data and environmental variables. All models had satisfactory AUC and TSS values, indicating high prediction precision (AUC and TSS > 0.801). Results showed that elevation and precipitation were the most important variables limiting the species' expansion in the future. In addition, we observed significant variations in the climatic niches of the three species and their distinct climatically appropriate regions. The current potential distribution ranges for the species varied between 2,328,726 km(2) and 4,026,363 km(2). According to the model predictions for the current period, the potential range of Azolla species extended outside the known and recorded locations; however, under future climate conditions, the species were projected to lose between 8.1% and 48% of their suitable habitats due to climate change. Our findings can be used to develop sustainable conservation measures for aquatic species and raise awareness about the effects of climate change.