Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Productivity of U.S. Dairies
Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Productivity of U.S. Dairies
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DOI：
10.1093/ajae/aau002
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发表时间：
2014-07-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Sneeringer, Stacy
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Key, Nigel;Sneeringer, Stacy
在美国，气候变化可能会增加每日平均气温和热浪频率，这可能会减少动物的肉类和牛奶产量。畜牧业生产者用来缓解热压力的方法--包括修改动物管理或住房--往往会增加生产成本。我们使用运营水平的经济数据和精细尺度的气候数据来估计当地的热环境如何影响全美奶牛场的技术效率。然后，在生产技术、生产地点和其他因素保持不变的简化假设下，我们使用这些信息来估计2030年气候变化引发的热应激可能导致的牛奶产量下降。对于四种气候模型情景，结果表明，到2030年，与高温压力相关的产量将适度下降，其中降幅最大的是南部各州。
In the United States, climate change is likely to increase average daily temperatures and the frequency of heat waves, which can reduce meat and milk production in animals. Methods that livestock producers use to mitigate thermal stress-including modifications to animal management or housing-tend to increase production costs. We use operation-level economic data coupled with finely-scaled climate data to estimate how the local thermal environment affects the technical efficiency of dairies across the United States. We then use this information to estimate the possible decline in milk production in 2030 resulting from climate change-induced heat stress under the simplifying assumptions that the production technology, location of production, and other factors are held constant. For four climate model scenarios, the results indicate modest heat-stress-related production declines by 2030, with the largest declines occurring in the southern states.