Tax Base Variability and Procyclical Fiscal Policy
Tax Base Variability and Procyclical Fiscal Policy
复制标题
税基变化和顺周期财政政策
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.147211
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发表时间：
1998
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Carlos A. Végh
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ernesto Talvi;Carlos A. Végh
基于对56个国家的抽样调查，我们发现，尽管G7国家的财政政策似乎与巴罗的税收平滑主张大体一致，但在发展中国家，政府支出和税收具有高度的顺周期性质(即，政府支出在扩张期间上升，税收下降，而在衰退期间则相反)。为了解释这一谜题，我们开发了一个最优财政政策模型，在该模型中，运行预算盈余是代价高昂的，因为它们产生了增加公共支出的压力。考虑到这种扭曲，一个面临税基大幅(且完全预料到)波动的政府将发现，实施顺周期的财政政策是最佳选择。我们认为，七国集团国家和发展中国家之间的财政政策差异可以追溯到这样一个事实，即发展中国家的税基比七国集团国家的税基更加不稳定。
Based on a sample of 56 countries, we find that while fiscal policy in the G-7 countries appears to be broadly consistent with Barro's tax smoothing proposition, in developing countries government spending and taxes are highly procyclical (i.e., government spending rises and taxes fall during expansions, while the reverse is true in recessions). To explain this puzzle, we develop an optimal fiscal policy model in which running budget surpluses is costly because they create pressures to increase public spending. Given this distortion, a government that faces large (and perfectly anticipated) fluctuations in the tax base will find it optimal to run a procyclical fiscal policy. We argue that the differences in fiscal policy between the G-7 countries and developing countries can be traced back to the fact that the tax base is much more volatile in developing countries than in the G-7 countries.