THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS ON DESERTIFICATION IN CHINA
THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS ON DESERTIFICATION IN CHINA
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作者：
Ci Long
气候变化与荒漠化之间的反馈机制已成为世界各国的研究热点之一，减少温室气体排放和防治荒漠化已成为全球合作的领域。中国作为发展中国家之一，沙漠化及其治理对全球气候变化的影响气候变化对中国沙漠化也有影响。结果表明：各沙漠化易发生物气候带的面积均有增加的趋势，其中亚|干旱区面积增加趋势最大，半|干旱区面积增加趋势次之。与1990年的3956 581万平方公里沙漠化易发生物气候带相比，在硫酸盐气溶胶效应温室气体年增长率为1%的情况下，2030年和2056年沙漠化易发生物气候带面积将分别增加11.33%和12.94%；而在硫酸盐气溶胶效应的温室气体年增长率为0.5%的情况下，2030年和2056年的面积将分别增加3.75%和6.95%；后者将比前者少7.58%和5.99%。在人类缓解活动下，温室气体年增长率保持在5%左右，沙漠化易发生物气候带的增长速度虽有所减缓，但总量仍显著增加。因此，进一步加强气候荒漠化相关研究，将有助于建立防治荒漠化与减缓温室气体年增长率之间的正反馈关系，为中国乃至世界的环境保护事业做出贡献
The feedback mechanism between climate change and desertification has become one of research focuses all over the world, and the reduction of GHGs emission and the combat against desertification have become a global cooperation field. As one of developing countries, China's desertification and its control influences on global climate change; and climate change also influences on desertification in China. In this paper, data from 1914 meteorological stations nationwide are selected as baseline data; and on the basis of the revision of Thornthwaite Equation in Qinghai\|Tibet Plateau using Vegetation Division Map, the HadCM2 model is used to predict the change of desertification\|prone bioclimatic zones in 2030 and 2056. The result shows that the areas of all the desertification\|prone bioclimatic zones have a tendency to increase, and the increasing tendency of the dry sub\|humid area is the highest and that of semi\|arid areas the second. Compared to the 3956 581 thousand square kilometers of desertification\|prone bioclimatic zones in 1990, in the case of 1 percent of annual increasing rate of GHGs with sulphate aerosol effect, the areas will be increased by 11 33 percent and 12 94 percent in 2030 and 2056 respectively; whereas in the case of 0 5 percent of annual increasing rate of GHGs with sulphate aerosol effect, the areas will be increased by 3 75 percent and 6 95 percent in 2030 and 2056 respectively; the latter will be to 7 58 and 5 99 percentage less than the former. Keeping the 0 5 percent of annual increasing rate of GHGs under human alleviation activities, the increasing rate of desertification\|prone bioclimatic zones does slow down, but the total increasing amount is still significant. Hence, further reinforcement of climate\|desertification\|related researches will be helpful to establish the positive feedback between the combat against desertification and the reduction of annual increasing rate of GHGs, which will contribute to environmental protection in China and in the world