The Bass diffusion model on networks with correlations and inhomogeneous advertising
The Bass diffusion model on networks with correlations and inhomogeneous advertising
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DOI：
10.1016/j.chaos.2016.02.039
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发表时间：
2016-09-01
影响因子：
7.8
通讯作者：
Modanese, G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bertotti, M. L.;Brunner, J.;Modanese, G.
Bass模型是一种有效的基于大量经验数据的创新扩散预测工具，它假设了一个均匀的扩散过程。我们在该模型中引入了一种网络结构，并对链路密度为P(K)=c/k(Gamma)的网络的动力学进行了数值研究，其中k=1，…，N，所得到的总采用率随时间的曲线定性地类似于具有相同平均连接数的情况下的齐次Bass曲线。然而，采用的高峰期往往出现得更早，特别是当Gamma和N较大时(即，当有几个集线器具有大量最大连接数时)。最有趣的是，中心的采用率曲线以可预测的方式预测总采用率曲线，例如，当N=100时，高峰时间可能在总采用率峰值的10%到60%之间。这可以允许出于预测目的而监控集线器。我们还考虑了具有分类和非分类相关性的网络的情况，以及不同类型的广告的情况，其中宣传术语是针对枢纽的，同时保持其总成本不变。(C)2016爱思唯尔有限公司。保留所有权利。
The Bass model, which is an effective forecasting tool for innovation diffusion based on large collections of empirical data, assumes an homogeneous diffusion process. We introduce a network structure into this model and we investigate numerically the dynamics in the case of networks with link density P(k) = c/k(gamma), where k=1, ... ,N. The resulting curve of the total adoptions in time is qualitatively similar to the homogeneous Bass curve corresponding to a case with the same average number of connections. The peak of the adoptions, however, tends to occur earlier, particularly when gamma and N are large (i.e., when there are few hubs with a large maximum number of connections). Most interestingly, the adoption curve of the hubs anticipates the total adoption curve in a predictable way, with peak times which can be, for instance when N = 100, between 10% and 60% of the total adoptions peak. This may allow to monitor the hubs for forecasting purposes. We also consider the case of networks with assortative and disassortative correlations and a case of inhomogeneous advertising where the publicity terms are "targeted" on the hubs while maintaining their total cost constant. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.