Forecast-based action for conservation.
Forecast-based action for conservation.
复制标题
基于预测的保护行动。
DOI：
10.1111/cobi.14054
复制
发表时间：
2023
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Boult VL
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Boult VL
极端天气事件对生物多样性构成直接威胁，但现有的保护战略存在局限性。气象预报的进步和人道主义部门的创新提供了一种可能的解决方案-基于预报的行动（FbA）。生态预测的增长表明了预测保护结果的巨大潜力，但缺乏可操作的例子表明需要一种新的方法将预测转化为行动。FbA提供了这样一个框架，正式使用气象预报来预测和减轻极端天气的影响。根据人道主义部门的经验，我建议FbA如何在保护中发挥作用，使用热浪对海龟胚胎死亡率影响的理论例子来展示关键概念，并解决实现FbA保护可能面临的挑战，包括建立融资机制，分配资金到行动，以及在不确定性下的决策。FbA将要求在保护研究、实践和治理方面进行变革。研究人员必须加大努力，以更直接和可操作的时间尺度了解极端天气的影响，并应与从业人员共同制作此类影响的预测。国际保护基金会应建立系统，为基于不确定预测的预期行动提供资金。
Extreme weather events pose an immediate threat to biodiversity, but existing conservation strategies have limitations. Advances in meteorological forecasting and innovation in the humanitarian sector provide a possible solution—forecast‐based action (FbA). The growth of ecological forecasting demonstrates the huge potential to anticipate conservation outcomes, but a lack of operational examples suggests a new approach is needed to translate forecasts into action. FbA provides such a framework, formalizing the use of meteorological forecasts to anticipate and mitigate the impacts of extreme weather. Based on experience from the humanitarian sector, I suggest how FbA could work in conservation, demonstrating key concepts using the theoretical example of heatwave impacts on sea turtle embryo mortality, and address likely challenges in realizing FbA for conservation, including establishing a financing mechanism, allocating funds to actions, and decision‐making under uncertainty. FbA will demand changes in conservation research, practice, and governance. Researchers must increase efforts to understand the impacts of extreme weather at more immediate and actionable timescales and should coproduce forecasts of such impacts with practitioners. International conservation funders should establish systems to fund anticipatory actions based on uncertain forecasts.