Hydroeconomic optimization of integrated water management and transfers under stochastic surface water supply
Hydroeconomic optimization of integrated water management and transfers under stochastic surface water supply
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DOI：
10.1002/2014wr016519
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发表时间：
2015-05-01
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Lund, Jay R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhu, Tingju;Marques, Guilherme Fernandes;Lund, Jay R.
随着需求的增长、用户之间的竞争加剧以及新供水的成本越来越高，对现有供水进行有效的重新分配和联合运作变得越来越重要。本文分析了地表水和地下水联合利用和市场化调水在农业和城市用水户基于供水可靠性和水的经济价值协调供需管理的一体化区域水系统中的作用和效益。农业用户为一年生和多年生作物优化土地和水的使用，以最大限度地提高农业收入，而城市用户则选择短期和长期的节水行动，以保持可靠性并最大限度地降低成本。这些决定的时间顺序表示在一个两阶段的优化，最大限度地提高净预期效益的作物生产，城市保护和水资源管理，包括联合使用和水转移。长期决策在第一阶段，短期决策在第二阶段，基于水可用性事件的概率。分析和数值分析。结果表明，联合使用和水转让可以大大稳定农民的收入和减少系统成本，减少昂贵的城市水保护或建设。水的转移可以使各用户之间的水的边际价值相等，而联合使用则可以最大限度地减少水的边际价值在时间上的差异。模型的结果是有用的，探索不同的水的需求和供应，通过水转移，联合使用和保护的整合，为改善系统管理提供了有价值的见解。
Efficient reallocation and conjunctive operation of existing water supplies is gaining importance as demands grow, competitions among users intensify, and new supplies become more costly. This paper analyzes the roles and benefits of conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater and market-based water transfers in an integrated regional water system where agricultural and urban water users coordinate supply and demand management based on supply reliability and economic values of water. Agricultural users optimize land and water use for annual and perennial crops to maximize farm income, while urban users choose short-term and long-term water conservation actions to maintain reliability and minimize costs. The temporal order of these decisions is represented in a two-stage optimization that maximizes the net expected benefits of crop production, urban conservation and water management including conjunctive use and water transfers. Long-term decisions are in the first stage and short-term decisions are in a second stage based on probabilities of water availability events. Analytical and numerical analyses are made. Results show that conjunctive use and water transfers can substantially stabilize farmer's income and reduce system costs by reducing expensive urban water conservation or construction. Water transfers can equalize marginal values of water across users, while conjunctive use minimizes water marginal value differences in time. Model results are useful for exploring the integration of different water demands and supplies through water transfers, conjunctive use, and conservation, providing valuable insights for improving system management.