Consequences of climatic thresholds for projecting fire activity and ecological change
Consequences of climatic thresholds for projecting fire activity and ecological change
复制标题
预测火灾活动和生态变化的气候阈值的后果
DOI：
10.1111/geb.12872
复制
发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Gillespie, ed., Thomas
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Young, Adam M.;Higuera, Philip E.;Abatzoglou, John T.;Duffy, Paul A.;Hu, Feng Sheng;Gillespie, ed., Thomas
由阈值关系控制的生态特性可以表现出对气候的高度敏感性，在预测未来变化时产生了固有的不确定性。我们研究了阈值关系对我们在观测记录之外预测生态变化的能力的影响（例如，世纪），利用预测北部森林和苔原生态系统中晚全新世火灾状况的挑战。位置阿拉斯加的北部森林和苔原生态系统。时间段850 -2100 CE。主要类群研究不适用。方法我们通知了一组已发表的统计模型，旨在根据气候常态预测30年火灾发生的概率，全球气候模型的数据为850-1850 CE。为了评估观测记录之外的模型性能和阈值关系的影响，我们将模型估计值与29个已发表的湖泊沉积物古火灾重建估计的平均火灾重现间隔进行了比较。为了将我们的结果在未来的变化的背景下，我们评估的位置阈值燃烧下21世纪世纪气候projects.ResultsModel-palaeodata比较突出的空间变化的准确性在整个北方森林和苔原地区，与变化强烈相关的夏季温度阈值燃烧：网站更接近这个阈值表现出更大的预测误差比网站远离这个阈值。修改现代（即，1950-2009年）火灾-气候关系也导致模拟估计发生重大变化。根据21世纪世纪气候预测，阿拉斯加冻原和北方森林的比例将接近并超过燃烧的温度阈值，到2070- 2099年，超过该阈值> 2 °C的比例将超过50%。这意味着对阈值控制生态系统未来生态系统变化的预测将伴随着显著的不确定性。这项工作还表明，随着不同地区接近和超过21世纪世纪的气候阈值，对气候变化的生态响应将表现出很高的时空变异性。
AimEcological properties governed by threshold relationships can exhibit heightened sensitivity to climate, creating an inherent source of uncertainty when anticipating future change. We investigated the impact of threshold relationships on our ability to project ecological change outside the observational record (e.g., the 21st century), using the challenge of predicting late‐Holocene fire regimes in boreal forest and tundra ecosystems.LocationBoreal forest and tundra ecosystems of Alaska.Time period850–2100 CE.Major taxa studiedNot applicable.MethodsWe informed a set of published statistical models, designed to predict the 30‐year probability of fire occurrence based on climatological normals, with downscaled global climate model data for 850–1850 CE. To evaluate model performance outside the observational record and the implications of threshold relationships, we compared modelled estimates with mean fire return intervals estimated from 29 published lake‐sediment palaeofire reconstructions. To place our results in the context of future change, we evaluate changes in the location of threshold to burning under 21st‐century climate projections.ResultsModel–palaeodata comparisons highlight spatially varying accuracy across boreal forest and tundra regions, with variability strongly related to the summer temperature threshold to burning: sites closer to this threshold exhibited larger prediction errors than sites further away from this threshold. Modifying the modern (i.e., 1950–2009) fire–climate relationship also resulted in significant changes in modelled estimates. Under 21st‐century climate projections, increasing proportions of Alaskan tundra and boreal forest will approach and surpass the temperature threshold to burning, with > 50% exceeding this threshold by > 2 °C by 2070–2099.Main conclusionsOur results highlight a high sensitivity of statistical projections to changing threshold relationships and data uncertainty, implying that projections of future ecosystem change in threshold‐governed ecosystems will be accompanied by notable uncertainty. This work also suggests that ecological responses to climate change will exhibit high spatio‐temporal variability as different regions approach and surpass climatic thresholds over the 21st century.
登录
查看更多内容
冰河后植被和火灾历史：来自阿拉斯加两个湖泊的花粉、植物大化石和木炭记录
影响因子：
2.5
作者：
W. Tinner;F. Hu;R. Beer;Petra Kaltenrieder;Brigitte Scheurer;U. Krähenbühl
通讯作者：
U. Krähenbühl
影响因子：
3.1
作者：
J. Watling;L. Brandt;David N. Bucklin;I. Fujisaki;F. Mazzotti;S. Romañach;Carolina Speroterra
通讯作者：
J. Watling;L. Brandt;David N. Bucklin;I. Fujisaki;F. Mazzotti;S. Romañach;Carolina Speroterra
影响因子：
3.4
作者：
D. Peters;J. Herrick
通讯作者：
J. Herrick
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1219844110
发表时间：
2012-12-26
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Scheffer, Marten;Hirota, Marina;Chapin, F. Stuart, III
通讯作者：
Chapin, F. Stuart, III
阿拉斯加北部北极山麓中部的全新世花粉记录：测试基质在苔原对气候变化响应中的作用
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2003
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
W. Oswald;L. Brubaker;F. Hu;G. Kling
通讯作者：
G. Kling