SARS-CoV-2 transmission in opposition-controlled Northwest Syria: modeling pandemic responses during political conflict.
SARS-CoV-2 transmission in opposition-controlled Northwest Syria: modeling pandemic responses during political conflict.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.ijid.2022.01.062
复制
发表时间：
2022-04
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
CoMo Consortium
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Marzouk M;Alhiraki OA;Aguas R;Gao B;Clapham H;Obaid W;Altaleb H;Almhawish N;Rihawi H;Abbara A;Douedari Y;Hariri M;Howard N;CoMo Consortium
十年的冲突使叙利亚西北部一半以上的人口流离失所，并摧毁了卫生系统，水和卫生设施以及对传染病控制至关重要的公共卫生基础设施。第一例新冠肺炎病例于2020年7月9日宣布，但对该地区的影响估计很小。随着疫苗接种的推出和B.1.617.2（Delta）变种的出现，我们旨在估计新冠肺炎在新世界的发展轨迹以及疫苗覆盖率和医院入住率的潜在影响。我们进行了一项混合方法研究，主要包括使用年龄结构化的房室易感染-暴露-感染-恢复（SEIR）模型对接种疫苗策略的COVID-19传播情景进行建模预测，并得到来自20名一线卫生工作者的半结构化访谈的数据的支持，以帮助将建模结果的解释置于情境中。建模表明，现有的低严格性非药物干预措施（NPI）对COVID-19传播的影响最小。在Delta变体引入后，维持现有的NPI预计将导致第二波COVID-19，压倒医院的能力，并导致死亡人数增加四倍。到2022年6月，疫苗接种覆盖率高达60%的模拟预测，第二波疫苗接种无法通过目前的NPI预防。然而，到2022年6月，60%的疫苗接种覆盖率，加上50%的戴口罩和洗手覆盖率，应该会将医院病床和呼吸机的数量减少到目前的能力水平以下。在最坏的情况下，到2022年1月出现更具传播性和致命性的变体，预计将出现第三波。预计COVID-19导致的总死亡人数将保持相对较低水平，主要原因是人口年轻。考虑到限制性非营利机构的负面社会经济后果，例如对已经受到严重挑战的人群关闭边境或学校，以及在这种情况下相对无效，政策制定者和国际合作伙伴应该专注于尽快增加COVID-19疫苗接种覆盖率并鼓励佩戴口罩。
Ten years of conflict has displaced more than half of Northwest Syria's (NWS) population and decimated the health system, water and sanitation, and public health infrastructure vital for infectious disease control. The first NWS COVID-19 case was declared on July 9, 2020, but impact estimations in this region are minimal. With the rollout of vaccination and emergence of the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant, we aimed to estimate the COVID-19 trajectory in NWS and the potential effects of vaccine coverage and hospital occupancy. We conducted a mixed-method study, primarily including modeling projections of COVID-19 transmission scenarios with vaccination strategies using an age-structured, compartmental susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model, supported by data from 20 semi-structured interviews with frontline health workers to help contextualize interpretation of modeling results. Modeling suggested that existing low stringency non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) minimally affected COVID-19 transmission. Maintaining existing NPIs after the Delta variant introduction is predicted to result in a second COVID-19 wave, overwhelming hospital capacity and resulting in a fourfold increased death toll. Simulations with up to 60% vaccination coverage by June 2022 predict that a second wave is not preventable with current NPIs. However, 60% vaccination coverage by June 2022 combined with 50% coverage of mask-wearing and handwashing should reduce the number of hospital beds and ventilators needed below current capacity levels. In the worst-case scenario of a more transmissible and lethal variant emerging by January 2022, the third wave is predicted. Total COVID-19 attributable deaths are expected to remain relatively low owing largely to a young population. Given the negative socioeconomic consequences of restrictive NPIs, such as border or school closures for an already deeply challenged population and their relative ineffectiveness in this context, policymakers and international partners should instead focus on increasing COVID-19 vaccination coverage as rapidly as possible and encouraging mask-wearing.
登录
查看更多内容
在反对派控制的叙利亚重建卫生系统治理的视角： 定性研究
DOI：
10.15171/ijhpm.2018.132
发表时间：
2019-04-01
影响因子：
3.5
作者：
Douedari, Yazan;Howard, Natasha
通讯作者：
Howard, Natasha
影响因子：
8.1
作者：
Aguas R;White L;Hupert N;Shretta R;Pan-Ngum W;Celhay O;Moldokmatova A;Arifi F;Mirzazadeh A;Sharifi H;Adib K;Sahak MN;Franco C;Coutinho R;CoMo Consortium
通讯作者：
CoMo Consortium
影响因子：
34.3
作者：
Roberton, Timothy;Carter, Emily D.;Walker, Neff
通讯作者：
Walker, Neff
DOI：
10.1016/s1473-3099(20)30764-7
发表时间：
2021-01
期刊：
The Lancet. Infectious diseases
影响因子：
--
作者：
Tillett RL;Sevinsky JR;Hartley PD;Kerwin H;Crawford N;Gorzalski A;Laverdure C;Verma SC;Rossetto CC;Jackson D;Farrell MJ;Van Hooser S;Pandori M
通讯作者：
Pandori M
影响因子：
8.1
作者：
Adib K;Hancock PA;Rahimli A;Mugisa B;Abdulrazeq F;Aguas R;White LJ;Hajjeh R;Al Ariqi L;Nabeth P
通讯作者：
Nabeth P