Unprecedented drought in South India and recent water scarcity
Unprecedented drought in South India and recent water scarcity
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/abf289
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发表时间：
2021-05-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Aadhar, Saran
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Mishra, Vimal;Thirumalai, Kaustubh;Aadhar, Saran
印度半岛的农业和饮用水供应严重依赖于10月至12月与东北季风相关的季节性冬季降雨。2016年至2018年期间，东北季风降雨量从适中到极低，导致印度南部大部分地区出现严重干旱，加剧了水资源短缺。此次干旱的程度和动态尚未得到研究。在此，我们对这一事件的严重程度进行量化，并探究印度南部干旱状况的成因机制。我们的研究结果表明，在此事件期间，东北季风3年累计降雨量总计短缺超过40%——根据观测记录，这是近150年来最干旱的3年。我们证明，印度南部与东北季风相关的干旱状况与赤道印度洋和太平洋的冷相位有关。这些遥相关的未来变化将增加干旱预测的难度。
Peninsular Indian agriculture and drinking water availability are critically reliant on seasonal winter rainfall occurring from October to December, associated with the northeastern monsoon (NEM). Over 2016-2018, moderate-to-exceptionally low NEM rainfall gave rise to severe drought conditions over much of southern India and exacerbated water scarcity. The magnitude and dynamics of this drought remain unexplored. Here, we quantify the severity of this event and explore causal mechanisms of drought conditions over South India. Our findings indicate that the 3-year cumulative rainfall totals of NEM rainfall during this event faced a deficit of more than 40%-the driest 3-year period in similar to 150 years according to the observational record. We demonstrate that drought conditions linked to the NEM across South India are associated with cool phases in the equatorial Indian and Pacific Oceans. Future changes in these teleconnections will add to the challenges of drought prediction.