Has SARS infected the property market? Evidence from Hong Kong
Has SARS infected the property market? Evidence from Hong Kong
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jue.2006.12.007
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发表时间：
2008-01-01
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Wong, Grace
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Wong, Grace
本文以 2003 年香港严重急性呼吸系统综合症 (SARS) 疫情为自然实验，研究房地产市场对极端事件的反应。使用大型住宅区（庄园）的面板数据集来利用 SARS 传播的横截面变化来估计该疾病对房地产价格和销售的影响。 SARS 风险的衡量标准包括：(1) 地产层面的 SARS 感染率，(2) 新闻报道，以及 (3) 政府公布的感染情况。如果某个房地产直接受到SARS的影响，平均价格会下降1-3%，而所有房地产都会因疾病的爆发而下降1.6%。根据理性资产定价模型对预期价格下跌的粗略计算表明，与 SARS 相关的价格变动一致的生命经济价值不到 100 万美元。这一低数字与心理和行为经济学理论对过度反应的预测形成鲜明对比。对交易量的分析表明，价格没有过度反应可能与住房市场特征（包括交易成本）有关。信用约束和损失厌恶。 (C) 2007 Elsevier Inc. 保留所有权利。
This paper uses the 2003 Hong Kong Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic as a natural experiment to investigate how housing markets react to extreme events. A panel data set of large-scale housing complexes (estates) is used to exploit the cross-sectional variation in the spread of SARS to estimate the effect of the disease on real estate prices and sales. SARS risk is measured by: (1) the estate-level SARS infection rate, (2) news reports, and (3) government announcements of infections. The average price declines by 1-3 percent if an estate is directly affected by SARS, and by 1.6 percent for all estates as a result of the outbreak of the disease. A back-of-the-envelope calculation of the expected price fall under the rational asset-pricing model implies that the economic value of life consistent with the SARS-related price movement was less than $1 million. This low figure contrasts with the predictions of overreaction from psychological and behavioral economics theories. An analysis of transaction volume suggests that the absence of price overreaction is likely to be related to housing market characteristics, including transaction costs. credit constraints and loss aversion. (C) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All fights reserved.