Modulation of Tropical Cyclones over the Eastern Pacific by the Intraseasonal Variability Simulated in an AGCM
Modulation of Tropical Cyclones over the Eastern Pacific by the Intraseasonal Variability Simulated in an AGCM
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DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-11-00531.1
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发表时间：
2012-04
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Xianan Jiang;Ming Zhao;D. Waliser
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Xianan Jiang;Ming Zhao;D. Waliser
摘要本研究表明，观测到的大尺度季节内变率（ISV）对东太平洋（EPAC）热带气旋（TC）生成的调制在最近开发的高分辨率大气模式（希拉姆）中得到了很好的体现，该模式水平分辨率约为50 km。考虑到固有的可预测性的ISV的2-4周，这种分析，因此具有显着的影响，动态为基础的TC预测的季节内时间尺度。分析表明，在观测和希拉姆模拟中，与ISV相关的生成势指数（GPI）异常一般都能很好地描述ISV对EPAC TC生成的调制作用。进一步的调查进行探索的关键因素与ISV调制的TC活动的基础上分析的预算条款的观察GPI在ISV的生命周期。结果表明，GPI因子的相对作用取决于ISV的阶段和位置。
AbstractThis study illustrates that observed modulations of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the eastern Pacific (EPAC) by large-scale intraseasonal variability (ISV) are well represented in a recently developed high-resolution atmospheric model (HiRAM) at the NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km. Considering the intrinsic predictability of the ISV of 2–4 weeks, this analysis thus has significant implications for dynamically based TC predictions on intraseasonal time scales. Analysis indicates that the genesis potential index (GPI) anomalies associated with the ISV can generally well depict ISV modulations of EPAC TC genesis in both observations and HiRAM simulations. Further investigation is conducted to explore the key factors associated with ISV modulation of TC activity based on an analysis of budget terms of the observed GPI during the ISV life cycle. It is found that, while relative roles of GPI factors are dependent on ISV phase and locatio...