Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere’s climate variability
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere’s climate variability
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DOI：
10.1007/s00382-011-1071-8
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发表时间：
2010-05
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
M. Wyatt;S. Kravtsov;A. Tsonis
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Wyatt;S. Kravtsov;A. Tsonis
代用品和仪器记录反映了北方半球50-80年的准周期性气候信号，特别是在北大西洋。模拟研究合理化这种变化的内在动力学的大西洋经向翻转环流影响分布的海面温度异常在大西洋，因此命名为大西洋多年代际振荡（AMO）。通过分析气候指数网络的滞后协方差结构，本研究详细说明了通过大气和滞后海洋遥相关序列在整个北方半球的AMO-signal传播，作者称之为“体育场波”。与AMO相关的北大西洋温度异常的初始变化在大约30年后的半球信号中达到顶峰。此外，较短期的年际至年代际气候变率根据体育场波引起的主导半球气候制度的极性改变特征。正在进行的研究表明，短期变化和体育场波之间的相互作用，与大西洋部门内的几十年变化的后续修改的迹象。这里提出的结果支持这一假设，即AMO发挥了重要的作用，半球和推断，全球气候变率，气候变化归因和预测的影响。
Proxy and instrumental records reflect a quasi-cyclic 50–80-year climate signal across the Northern Hemisphere, with particular presence in the North Atlantic. Modeling studies rationalize this variability in terms of intrinsic dynamics of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation influencing distribution of sea-surface-temperature anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean; hence the name Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). By analyzing a lagged covariance structure of a network of climate indices, this study details the AMO-signal propagation throughout the Northern Hemisphere via a sequence of atmospheric and lagged oceanic teleconnections, which the authors term the “stadium wave”. Initial changes in the North Atlantic temperature anomaly associated with AMO culminate in an oppositely signed hemispheric signal about 30 years later. Furthermore, shorter-term, interannual-to-interdecadal climate variability alters character according to polarity of the stadium-wave-induced prevailing hemispheric climate regime. Ongoing research suggests mutual interaction between shorter-term variability and the stadium wave, with indication of ensuing modifications of multidecadal variability within the Atlantic sector. Results presented here support the hypothesis that AMO plays a significant role in hemispheric and, by inference, global climate variability, with implications for climate-change attribution and prediction.