Behavioural change models for infectious disease transmission: a systematic review (2010-2015).
Behavioural change models for infectious disease transmission: a systematic review (2010-2015).
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传染病传播的行为变化模型：系统评价（2010-2015）。
DOI：
10.1098/rsif.2016.0820
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发表时间：
2016-12
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Beutels P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Verelst F;Willem L;Beutels P
我们回顾了人类传染病传播的行为变化模型（BCM）。根据科克伦合作指南和PRISMA声明，我们的系统检索和选择产生了178篇涵盖2010-2015年的论文。我们观察到越来越多的趋势，在公布的BCM，经常耦合到（再）出现的事件，并提出了一个分类，区分信息如何转化为预防行动。行为通常通过引入信息作为动态参数（76/178）或通过引入经济目标函数（26/178）或不（37/178）模仿来捕获。使用信息阈值（29/178）和外源行为形成（16/178）的方法也很受欢迎。我们进一步根据疾病、预防措施、传播模式（81/178个群体，6/178个集合群体和91/178个个体水平模型）和预防影响传播的方式进行分类。我们强调了少数（15%）使用任何真实数据进行参数化或验证的研究，并注意到BCM越来越多地使用社交媒体数据，并且通常包含多种信息来源（16/178），多种类型的信息（17/178）或两者兼而有之（9/178）。我们的结论是，个人层面的模型越来越多地使用和有用的模型行为的变化。尽管最近取得了一些进展，但我们仍然担心大多数模型都是纯理论的，缺乏代表性的数据和验证过程。
We review behavioural change models (BCMs) for infectious disease transmission in humans. Following the Cochrane collaboration guidelines and the PRISMA statement, our systematic search and selection yielded 178 papers covering the period 2010–2015. We observe an increasing trend in published BCMs, frequently coupled to (re)emergence events, and propose a categorization by distinguishing how information translates into preventive actions. Behaviour is usually captured by introducing information as a dynamic parameter (76/178) or by introducing an economic objective function, either with (26/178) or without (37/178) imitation. Approaches using information thresholds (29/178) and exogenous behaviour formation (16/178) are also popular. We further classify according to disease, prevention measure, transmission model (with 81/178 population, 6/178 metapopulation and 91/178 individual-level models) and the way prevention impacts transmission. We highlight the minority (15%) of studies that use any real-life data for parametrization or validation and note that BCMs increasingly use social media data and generally incorporate multiple sources of information (16/178), multiple types of information (17/178) or both (9/178). We conclude that individual-level models are increasingly used and useful to model behaviour changes. Despite recent advancements, we remain concerned that most models are purely theoretical and lack representative data and a validation process.