Quantitative assessment of fire and vegetation properties in simulations with fire-enabled vegetation models from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project
Quantitative assessment of fire and vegetation properties in simulations with fire-enabled vegetation models from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project
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DOI：
10.5194/gmd-13-3299-2020
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发表时间：
2020-07-17
影响因子：
5.1
通讯作者：
Yue, Chao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hantson, Stijn;Kelley, Douglas, I;Yue, Chao
全球火灾-植被模型被广泛用于评估环境变化对火灾制度和碳循环的影响，并推断气候、土地利用和火灾之间的关系。然而，模型结构和参数化的差异，在这些模型的植被和火灾组成部分，可能会影响模型的整体性能，迄今为止，对不同模型如何很好地代表火灾制度的各个方面的评估有限。火灾模型比对项目（fireremip）正在协调对最先进的全球火灾模型的评估，以便在全球环境变化的背景下改进火灾特征和火灾对生态系统和人类社会影响的预测。在这里，我们对9个fireremip模型所做的历史模拟进行了系统的评估，以量化它们重现一系列火灾和植被基准的能力。在现代条件下（2002-2012），fireremip模式对全球年总燃烧面积（39-536 Mha）和全球年火灾碳排放（0.91-4.75 PgC年（-1））的模拟范围较大，但燃烧面积的大部分范围在观测不确定性范围内（345-468 Mha）。基准测试得分表明，9个fireip模型中有7个模型能够代表燃烧区域的空间格局。这些模型也可以很好地再现燃烧面积的季节性，但难以模拟火灾季节长度，并且在很大程度上无法表示燃烧面积的年际变化。然而，代表农田火灾的模型对北半球火灾季节性的模拟有所改善。三种明确模拟单个火灾的fireremip模型能够再现火灾数量的空间格局，但关键区域的火灾规模太小，这导致了对燃烧面积的低估。植被的空间和季节模式的正确表示似乎与更好地表示燃烧面积有关。fireip集成中包含的两个较老的fire模型（LPJ-GUESS-GlobFIRM, MC2）在全局上的表现明显不如其他模型，但很难区分其余集成成员；其中一些模型更能代表火灾制度的某些方面；在评估的所有变量范围内，没有一个模型明显优于所有其他模型。
Global fire-vegetation models are widely used to assess impacts of environmental change on fire regimes and the carbon cycle and to infer relationships between climate, land use and fire. However, differences in model structure and parameterizations, in both the vegetation and fire components of these models, could influence overall model performance, and to date there has been limited evaluation of how well different models represent various aspects of fire regimes. The Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) is coordinating the evaluation of state-of-the-art global fire models, in order to improve projections of fire characteristics and fire impacts on ecosystems and human societies in the context of global environmental change. Here we perform a systematic evaluation of historical simulations made by nine FireMIP models to quantify their ability to reproduce a range of fire and vegetation benchmarks. The FireMIP models simulate a wide range in global annual total burnt area (39-536 Mha) and global annual fire carbon emission (0.91-4.75 PgC yr(-1)) for modern conditions (2002-2012), but most of the range in burnt area is within observational uncertainty (345-468 Mha). Benchmarking scores indicate that seven out of nine FireMIP models are able to represent the spatial pattern in burnt area. The models also reproduce the seasonality in burnt area reasonably well but struggle to simulate fire season length and are largely unable to represent interannual variations in burnt area. However, models that represent cropland fires see improved simulation of fire seasonality in the Northern Hemisphere. The three FireMIP models which explicitly simulate individual fires are able to reproduce the spatial pattern in number of fires, but fire sizes are too small in key regions, and this results in an underestimation of burnt area. The correct representation of spatial and seasonal patterns in vegetation appears to correlate with a better representation of burnt area. The two older fire models included in the FireMIP ensemble (LPJ-GUESS-GlobFIRM, MC2) clearly perform less well globally than other models, but it is difficult to distinguish between the remaining ensemble members; some of these models are better at representing certain aspects of the fire regime; none clearly outperforms all other models across the full range of variables assessed.