Is the Discretionary Income Effect of Oil Price Shocks a Hoax?
Is the Discretionary Income Effect of Oil Price Shocks a Hoax?
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DOI：
10.5547/01956574.39.si2.cbau
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发表时间：
2017-02
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
C. Baumeister;Lutz Kilian;Xiaoqing Zhou
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. Baumeister;Lutz Kilian;Xiaoqing Zhou
自20世纪70年代以来，石油价格冲击的传导一直是宏观经济学关注的核心问题。自2014-16年石油实际价格持续大幅下跌以来，人们对这个问题重新产生了兴趣。在这场辩论的背景下，Ramey(2017)提出了引人注目的主张，即现有关于油价冲击传导的文献从根本上混淆了如何量化油价冲击的影响的问题。特别是，她断言，可自由支配收入对私人消费的影响，在当代关于油价冲击向美国经济传导的描述中发挥着核心作用，没有经济意义，也没有经济基础。雷米指出，文献经常将贸易条件效应与可自由支配收入效应混为一谈，她提出的理由是，由于多种原因，2014-16年油价下跌对私人消费的影响比可自由支配收入效应的经验模型所暗示的要小。我们回顾了Ramey(2017)中的主要论点，并表明她的所有主张都经不起审查。我们的分析突出了可自由支配收入效应的理论基础。我们还讨论了对这种影响的改进的基于回归的估计，允许改变对石油和汽油进口的依赖，并强调了这样一个事实，即政策制定者使用的替代估计包含强烈的简化假设。
Abstract The transmission of oil price shocks has been a question of central interest in macroeconomics since the 1970s. There has been renewed interest in this question since the large and persistent fall in the real price of oil in 2014-16. In the context of this debate, Ramey (2017) makes the striking claim that the existing literature on the transmission of oil price shocks is fundamentally confused about the question of how to quantify the effect of oil price shocks. In particular, she asserts that the discretionary income effect on private consumption, which plays a central role in contemporary accounts of the transmission of oil price shocks to the U.S. economy, makes no economic sense and has no economic foundation. Ramey suggests that the literature has too often confused the terms-of-trade effect with this discretionary income effect, and she makes the case that the effects of the oil price decline of 2014-16 on private consumption are smaller for a multitude of reasons than suggested by empirical models of the discretionary income effect. We review the main arguments in Ramey (2017) and show that none of her claims hold up to scrutiny. Our analysis highlights the theoretical basis of the discretionary income effect. We also discuss improved regression-based estimates of this effect that allow for changes in the dependence on oil and gasoline imports, and we highlight the fact that alternative estimates used by policymakers involve strong simplifying assumptions.