The lagged effect of cold temperature and wind chill on cardiorespiratory mortality in Scotland
The lagged effect of cold temperature and wind chill on cardiorespiratory mortality in Scotland
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DOI：
10.1136/oem.2004.016394
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发表时间：
2005-10-01
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Agius, RM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Carder, M;McNamee, R;Agius, RM
目的：研究寒冷温度对心肺死亡率的滞后影响，并确定“风寒”是否比“干球”温度更能预测这些影响。方法：广义线性泊松回归模型被用来调查死亡率和“干球”和“风寒”温度在三个最大的苏格兰城市之间的关系（格拉斯哥、爱丁堡和阿伯丁）1981年1月至2001年12月间。温度对死亡率的影响（滞后长达一个月）进行了量化。对全年和季节（冷季和暖季）进行了分析。主要结果：温度是死亡率的重要预测因素，温度与呼吸道死亡率之间的相关性最强。死亡率和温度之间存在非线性相关。在整个范围内，死亡率随着温度的下降而增加，但在温度低于11 ℃时，增加的速度更快。温度和死亡率之间的关联持续滞后期超过两周，但效果大小一般随滞后增加而下降。对于低于11 ℃的温度，任何一天白天平均温度下降1 ℃与死亡率增加2.9%相关（95% CI 2.5 - 3.4），3.4%（95% CI 2.6至4.1），4.8%（95% CI 3.5至6.2）和1.7%（95% CI 1.0至2.4）在接下来的一个月内分别为全因、心血管、呼吸和“其他”原因死亡率。温度对死亡率的影响没有观察到显着修改的季节。几乎没有迹象表明，“风寒”的温度是一个更好的预测死亡率比“干球”temperature.Conclusions：暴露于寒冷的温度是一个重要的公共卫生问题，在苏格兰，特别是那些死于呼吸系统疾病。
Aims: To investigate the lagged effects of cold temperature on cardiorespiratory mortality and to determine whether "wind chill'' is a better predictor of these effects than "dry bulb'' temperature.Methods: Generalised linear Poisson regression models were used to investigate the relation between mortality and "dry bulb'' and "wind chill'' temperatures in the three largest Scottish cities ( Glasgow, Edinburgh, and Aberdeen) between January 1981 and December 2001. Effects of temperature on mortality ( lags up to one month) were quantified. Analyses were conducted for the whole year and by season ( cool and warm seasons).Main results: Temperature was a significant predictor of mortality with the strongest association observed between temperature and respiratory mortality. There was a non-linear association between mortality and temperature. Mortality increased as temperatures fell throughout the range, but the rate of increase was steeper at temperatures below 11 C. The association between temperature and mortality persisted at lag periods beyond two weeks but the effect size generally decreased with increasing lag. For temperatures below 11 C, a 1 C drop in the daytime mean temperature on any one day was associated with an increase in mortality of 2.9% (95% CI 2.5 to 3.4), 3.4% ( 95% CI 2.6 to 4.1), 4.8% ( 95% CI 3.5 to 6.2) and 1.7% ( 95% CI 1.0 to 2.4) over the following month for all cause, cardiovascular, respiratory, and "other'' cause mortality respectively. The effect of temperature on mortality was not observed to be significantly modified by season. There was little indication that "wind chill'' temperature was a better predictor of mortality than "dry bulb'' temperature.Conclusions: Exposure to cold temperature is an important public health problem in Scotland, particularly for those dying from respiratory disease.