Projected HIV and Bacterial Sexually Transmitted Infection Incidence Following COVID-19-Related Sexual Distancing and Clinical Service Interruption.
Projected HIV and Bacterial Sexually Transmitted Infection Incidence Following COVID-19-Related Sexual Distancing and Clinical Service Interruption.
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DOI：
10.1093/infdis/jiab051
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发表时间：
2021-03-29
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Marcus JL
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jenness SM;Le Guillou A;Chandra C;Mann LM;Sanchez T;Westreich D;Marcus JL
全球COVID-19大流行有可能间接影响艾滋病毒和其他性传播感染（STI）的传播动态和预防。性活动减少和艾滋病毒/性传播感染服务中断对艾滋病毒/性传播感染流行轨迹的综合影响尚不清楚。我们采用了艾滋病毒，淋病，衣原体的人口约103000名男性与男性发生性关系（MSM）在亚特兰大地区的模型。模型情景改变了4个服务类别（艾滋病毒筛查、暴露前预防、抗逆转录病毒治疗和性传播感染治疗）中与COVID-19相关的性距离和服务中断的时间、重叠和相对程度。性伴侣相对减少50%和所有临床服务中断，两者持续18个月，通常会相互抵消艾滋病毒（亚特兰大MSM的5年总人口影响，-227例），但对性传播感染有净保护作用（-23800例）。如果隔离时间仅为3个月，但服务中断时间为18个月，则5年的总人口影响将增加890例艾滋病毒感染病例和57 500例性传播感染病例。需要立即采取行动限制服务中断的影响，以应对全球COVID-19大流行对艾滋病毒/性传播疾病流行的间接影响。亚特兰大地区男男性行为者中艾滋病毒、淋病和衣原体的传播模式显示了为应对COVID-19大流行而改变性行为和中断艾滋病毒/性病临床服务的影响。
The global COVID-19 pandemic has the potential to indirectly impact transmission dynamics and prevention of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STI). It is unknown what combined impact reductions in sexual activity and interruptions in HIV/STI services will have on HIV/STI epidemic trajectories. We adapted a model of HIV, gonorrhea, and chlamydia for a population of approximately 103 000 men who have sex with men (MSM) in the Atlanta area. Model scenarios varied the timing, overlap, and relative extent of COVID-19–related sexual distancing and service interruption within 4 service categories (HIV screening, preexposure prophylaxis, antiretroviral therapy, and STI treatment). A 50% relative decrease in sexual partnerships and interruption of all clinical services, both lasting 18 months, would generally offset each other for HIV (total 5-year population impact for Atlanta MSM, −227 cases), but have net protective effect for STIs (−23 800 cases). If distancing lasted only 3 months but service interruption lasted 18 months, the total 5-year population impact would be an additional 890 HIV cases and 57 500 STI cases. Immediate action to limit the impact of service interruptions is needed to address the indirect effects of the global COVID-19 pandemic on the HIV/STI epidemic. The transmission model of HIV, gonorrhea, and chlamydia among men who have sex with men in the Atlanta area demonstrates the impact of changes to sexual behavior and disruptions to HIV/STI clinical services in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
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DOI：
10.1111/rssb.12014
发表时间：
2014-01-01
期刊：
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, Statistical methodology
影响因子：
--
作者：
Krivitsky PN;Handcock MS
通讯作者：
Handcock MS
影响因子：
4.4
作者：
Stephenson, Rob;Chavanduka, Tanaka M. D.;Rogers, Erin
通讯作者：
Rogers, Erin
影响因子：
16.1
作者：
Jewell, Britta L.;Mudimu, Edinah;Kelly, Sherrie L.
通讯作者：
Kelly, Sherrie L.
影响因子：
8.5
作者：
Rosenberg ES;Grey JA;Sanchez TH;Sullivan PS
通讯作者：
Sullivan PS
影响因子：
4.4
作者：
Rogers, Brooke G.;Coats, Cassie Sutten;Nunn, Amy
通讯作者：
Nunn, Amy